The Royals and Yankees will play a pivotal Game 3 in Kansas City on Wednesday night, one which seems too close to call on account of an utterly unpredictable pitching matchup.
Clarke Schmidt will look to hunt more strikeouts against a swing-happy Royals team, while Seth Lugo looks to fend off regression yet again carrying some poor underlying numbers into this one.
How can we best capitalize on this matchup? Let's get into my Royals vs Yankees parlay picks for Game of the ALDS.
Royals vs Yankees Game 3 Parlay Picks
- Clarke Schmidt 4+ Strikeouts (-138)
- Juan Soto 2+ Total Bases (+110)
- Michael Massey To Record A Hit (-230)
Parlay Odds: +404 (FanDuel)
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
We spoke a lot about the Royals' struggles with making contact in our Game 2 same-game parlay writeup, and all Carlos Rodon did was turn around and punch out seven Royals over 3 2/3 innings before running into a bit of trouble the second time through the order.
Well, I think Clarke Schmidt should be well-positioned to become the next Yankees starter to cash his strikeout prop.
Kansas City enters this game with a strikeout rate over 24% for the postseason, something that's no surprise given its number over the last month was more or less the same, and Schmidt's proven in a short amount of time this season that he's going to get swings and misses and generate third strikes.
Sitting in the top 74% of all pitchers in both whiff rate and strikeout rate, I like this number a lot. The right-hander's struck out five or more in his last four starts, and after every bullpen arm aside from Luis Gil worked in Game 2, the 28-year-old should have a long leash as he goes to battle with the Royals here.
Schmidt's struck out at least four batters in all but one of his 16 starts this year, and has only pitched six or mor innings twice. He should be plenty capable of hitting four punchouts even in a naturally-abbreviated postseason start.
Next, we'll go back to the well with Juan Soto, who followed a three-hit night in Game 1 with an 0-for-3 in Game 2. He still managed to hit his only batted ball into play at over 100 mph off the bat, and should be in for another friendly matchup against Seth Lugo.
Soto has gone 5-for-18 against Lugo in his career with a .529 Expected Slugging Percentage, and he should sock at least a few more here off Lugo considering he's been a firm ground-ball arm this year for Kansas City.
The 25-year-old leads the Yankees with 63 total bases versus ground-ball pitchers this yar, finishing with a team-best .416 average and .523 slugging percentage in the split. He's also crushed sinkers this season with a .377 xBA and .774 xSLG, and while his numbers versus Lugo's beloved curveball aren't fantastic, his xBA has com in 130 points higher than his actual average.
Soto was one of this team's very best down the stretch, coming up with a hit in all but two of his final 12 games, and he should stay hot here on Wednesday.
Finally, as we attempt to help our odds by going with a Royals hitter, there should be nobody better than Michael Massey.
As we discuss this team's failure to put the ball in play, it certainly is no fault of Massey's. Their leadoff man has sported an excellent strikeout rate below 16% all season long, and should be able to combat the swing-and-miss arm of Schmidt early and often.
He owns a .307 xBA against Schmidt in just five plate appearances, and should continue squaring up the Yankees' farmhand well on Wednesday considering the right-hander has allowed a .238 average to left-handed hitters, which is 16 points higher than the reverse split.
Massey's also combined to hit near .300 against sinkers and cutters this season, and will see plenty of those out of Schmidt. The matchup here is right, and we should have plenty of opportunities to cash this considering Massey's combined to strike out and walk less than almost everybody in baseball.
