Royals vs. Twins Predictions
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +136 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -162 |
After the Twins won the AL Central last season and Kansas City finished last, it might be a bit surprising to see Kansas City sitting five games ahead of the Royals in the standings.
Kansas City had won eight straight games before dropping yesterday’s contest. Yet, the Royals are +145 underdogs as they head to Minnesota to begin a four-game series.
Check out my Royals vs. Twins pick and preview below.
Kansas City Royals
The Royals' rotation has been the story of their season. Their starters have a 2.97 collective ERA and Alec Marsh has been a big part of that success. Through eight starts this season, the 26-year-old is 4-1 with a 2.72 ERA.
In his rookie season last year, Marsh struggled to a 5.69 ERA and was sent to the bullpen halfway through the season. Entering 2024, he tweaked his pitch mix a bit to eliminate his sweeper and rely on his slider more.
That has resulted in a decrease in his hard-hit rate and cutting his walk rate nearly in half. Marsh does have a 4.03 xERA, so he could regress a little bit, but he has struck out 19 batters in his last three starts.
Everything the Royals do on offense revolves around all-word superstar Bobby Witt Jr. He is batting .307 with a .927 OPS and has the second-lowest odds to win the AL MVP. He does have help from Salvador Pérez, who continues to defy time, and Maikel Garcia has been playing really well recently too.
Over the last two weeks, the Royals rank fifth in both wOBA and wRC+ and have been firing on cylinders. Witt is establishing himself as the future of baseball and the rest of his supporting cast is really stepping up.
Minnesota Twins
For some reason, it seems like Joe Ryan has been right on the cusp of taking a massive step forward but keeps hovering on the line of an ace. For three of his last four seasons, he has underperformed with an xERA lower than his ERA.
He currently has a 3.15 ERA, which would be the best mark of his career. And his xERA is even better at 2.78. He has honed in his control and dropped his walk rate to just 3.8%. He has walked more than one better in a game just once this season.
Ryan has a terrific four-seam fastball that he pairs with a splitter for his top two pitches, and both have been brilliant. Ryan ranks near the top of the league in xERA and xwOBA and his elite control is a big reason why.
Injuries have crushed the Twins lineup, with nearly every big name missing time at some point. Royce Lewis has played just one game but the rest of the top guys have all returned. However, Byron Buxton, Carlos Santana and Alex Kirilloff have all struggled even when healthy.
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Royals vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Ryan has been terrific this season and his xERA and xwOBA indicate he could be doing even better. He’s not walking guys at all and while his biggest issue has always been allowing the long ball, his home run rate is at a career low.
While Marsh might be playing with fire a little bit, so far whatever he is doing has been working. He has allowed one run or fewer in four of his last five starts. Let’s just hope he can continue to avoid getting burned.
Marsh will get the help of facing a Minnesota offense that ranks 27th in wRC+, wOBA and scoring over the last two weeks.
Kansas City ranks 30th in reliever xFIP this season and the Twins' bullpen ranks 27th over the last month. I’ll avoid the late-inning drama and back both of these pitchers to limit the offense early.
