Reds vs Red Sox Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 30
Via Nick Grace/Getty Images. Pictured: Brayan Bello #66 of the Boston Red Sox delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park on May 17, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts.
- The Red Sox are home favorites on Tuesday night against the Reds.
- Doug Ziefel has crunched the odds, and he has a bet ready based upon regression looming for both lineups.
- Find his expert betting pick and prediction for Reds vs. Red Sox below.
Reds vs. Red Sox Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+152 | 9.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -126 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -180 | 9.5 -120/ -102 | -1.5 +105 |
The Cincinnati Reds enter this series flying high after sweeping the Chicago Cubs. They'll continue their road trip in Boston, where they'll face a Red Sox team that has found a way to stay afloat in the AL East with their lineup.
While the warm weather and bats have factored into the total of this matchup, the starting pitchers need to be given more credit. Ben Lively will get the ball for Cincinnati, and he's been great in his first two starts of the season.
He'll match up with Brayan Bello, who's been hit hard during his young career but appears to have figured it out over his last five starts. Can he continue his momentum tonight?
Let's take a closer look to find out and uncover the best bet for Reds vs. Red Sox along the way.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have a boatload of young talent in their lineup, but many of them are still developing at the big-league level. To their credit, they are not in the bottom of the barrel offensively as they've hit .256 as a team and have a 92 wRC+.
However, they have been fortunate to produce those numbers as they are last in the majors in Hard-hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity. That amount of poor contact is a clear sign of regression and has produced an xBA of .238.
This lineup will face Red Sox right-hander Brayan Bello. Bello made his debut last season and flashed great stuff but had issues commanding the ball in the strike zone. We've seen a bit of that as he sits in the bottom 20 percent of the qualified pitchers in Hard-hit Rate and Average Exit Velocity.
Although he's found a way to succeed despite the loud contact, Bello has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts. Bello's success should continue as he's trending up while the Reds are trending down.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have hit enough to stay afloat in the gauntlet that is the AL East. However, like their opposition, the Red Sox are due for regression at the dish.
Boston ranks in the top 10 in wOBA and wRC+ while hitting .262 as a team. However, Boston's xBA is significantly lower at .250.
Tonight the Red Sox will face Ben Lively, who has been successful since fighting his way back to a big-league roster at 31 years old. Lively's two starts have been impressive as he's worked into the sixth in both while allowing just two runs and striking out eight in each.
However, what's most impressive is that those performances came at home against the Yankees and Cardinals. He has a .198 xBA and is the pitcher who can provide the regression that the Red Sox are heading towards.
Reds vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
As I mentioned in the open, the weather is warm, and the ball has begun to fly. As a result, the total for this matchup opened at 10, which may seem right when examining this matchup on paper, but as you know now, it's too high when you look closer at these two starters.
Both of these lineups are due for sizable regression, and both starters in this matchup have been pitching very well of late. Consequently, I'm backing both of them by taking under 5.5 runs in the first five innings.
Pick: F5 Under 5.5 (-120) |
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