Reds vs. Brewers Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+104 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | +1.5 -210 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -122 | 7.5 -120 / -102 | -1.5 +172 |
There are few teams hotter than the Cincinnati Reds right now. They've taken control of the NL Central — with eight wins in their last nine tries — and have an opportunity in Milwaukee this weekend to put some distance between themselves and the second-place Brewers.
With Andrew Abbott on the hill for the visitors, is there a way around Corbin Burnes and the Brewers?
Let's break this one down in our Reds vs. Brewers preview.
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Cincinnati Reds
The rise of Abbott this year has been a captivating one. The left-hander had a poor 4.75 ERA through 91 innings at Double-A last year, but after starting hot down in the minors this year, he was promoted to Triple-A. There, he worked 38 1/3 innings and posted a respectable 3.05 ERA.
Abbott has always had excellent strikeout numbers coupled with poor walk numbers. The lefty struck out 30.8% of the batters he faced last season down in Double-A and posted a 34.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A this season.
So, it's probably worth reading into the fact that Abbott has begun his rookie campaign with a 29.4% strikeout rate.
Abbott holds a .185 expected batting average and .323 xSLG through 37 1/3 big-league innings to go along with the excellent strikeout numbers and a high 9.1% walk rate.
His first big-league start saw him spin six scoreless innings against these same Brewers, with four walks but just one hit on his ledger.
Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes hasn't had a dream first half by any means, but all hope is certainly not lost for the former Cy Young Award winner. His 4.00 ERA is cushioned by a 3.64 xERA, thanks to his hard-hit and barrel rates, which remain low.
The tougher news for Burnes is that his expected batting average remains an uncharacteristic .234, though that's still 11 points better than the league average.
His strikeout rate is also down to 23%, which is a drop of more than seven points from 2022.
The other tough part here is that it doesn't appear Burnes is trending upward. His whiff rate and strikeout rate have both been in roughly the same place each month this season. As a result, he's yet to finish a month with an ERA better than 3.30.
He's off to a good start in July after allowing just two runs on a hit and two walks over seven innings against the Pirates, but the Reds may be a tougher test here.
Reds vs. Brewers Betting Pick
The Reds have a good lineup. They've finally hit the 100 wRC+ mark for the season and rank fifth in that category over the last two weeks.
That's just about all I have to say; I have no issues trusting a team with a high 10.2% walk rate and good 21.6% strikeout rate in the last 14 days. They also possess a ton of power.
The Brewers simply can't hit. They're batting just .230 this season with a meek .143 ISO. They also rank 27th in wRC+.
These last two weeks have represented a hot streak, and even then, they still have just a 97 wRC+ to come in three points worse than the league average.
So, with all things being equal in the pitching matchup, I'm inclined to take the team with the better offense by a mile.
Abbott's incredible strikeout numbers should be the nail in the coffin for a Milwaukee team punching out in over a quarter of its plate appearances.
Pick: Reds +100 |
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