After a thrilling extra-innings bout between the Yankees and Red Sox yesterday, where we saw 19 runs scored in a win for the Bronx Bombers, the two teams are now set to headline Sunday Night Baseball in the series finale.
Tanner Houck takes the mound for a Boston team looking for some much-needed innings after both Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford were unable to make it past five innings of work. Boston has used an average of 6.5 relievers per game this series, five of which in back-to-back games.
The Yankees look toward Carlos Rodon with the same hope. Nestor Cortes failed to make it out of the fifth while Marcus Stroman lasted just 3 1/3 on Saturday. New York has used an average of five relievers, with three pitching on back-to-back nights, including closer Clay Holmes.
Let’s take a look at my same-game parlay (SGP) for Sunday Night Baseball between the Red Sox and Yankees, as both teams look for some pitching stability amid a high-scoring weekend tonight, July 28.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Red Sox vs Yankees Same Game Parlay: Sunday, July 28
- Yankees Moneyline (-110)
- Aaron Judge to Walk (-110)
- Trent Grisham Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125)
Parlay Odds: +700 (bet365)
Yankees Moneyline (-110)
Red Sox vs. Yankees | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Red Sox bullpen has become an issue. It’s no secret in the second half of the season and Saturday was no different. Kenley Jansen could not close the door in the ninth on a back-to-back, the fourth time Boston failed to close the door with the lead in the ninth or later in the second half (8 games).
Tanner Houck has been a bit fortunate to date, too. His xERA (3.81) is over a run higher than actual (2.71), and he ranks in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate. He’s benefitted from a 55.2% ground ball rate.
Over the last 30 days, the Yankees have the sixth-best offense in baseball (118 wRC+). In the last two weeks, they’re third. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto have been playing on another level, and the boost of players like Gleyber Torres has been much-needed.
Houck does not generate many whiffs and his xBA (.256) is in the bottom 33% of all pitchers. NY should be able to generate some damage — and we know how bad this Boston pen is. Tack on Jansen, Zack Kelly, Bailey Horn, Cam Booser, Josh Wincowski and Brennan Bernardino all logging relief appearances in two straight days and this Boston pen becomes extremely decimated.
As for Carlos Rodon, the southpaw logged arguably his best start as a Yankee his last time out. He threw seven innings of one-run ball, striking out 10. His issue all season has been limiting the long ball — and barrels — but we’re starting to see an increase in both strikeouts and ground balls.
This is another plus-matchup for Rodon against a Red Sox lineup that is in their worse split. Boston is 15th in wRC+ and dead-last in strikeout rate vs. LHP. They are eighth in wRC+ against righties.
Give me the better offense — NY is first in wRC+ against RHP — with a deeper bullpen and arguably a better starting pitcher at a coin flip price.
Aaron Judge to Walk (-110)
Red Sox vs. Yankees | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
I’m still not sure why teams are pitching to Aaron Judge in any high-leverage situation. Since July 11, Judge has been walked at least once in 10-of-12 games. He has been walked in each game this series as well.
I expect more of the same on Sunday. Judge has hit two monstrous home runs thus far — one of which went over the Green Monster and out of the park — and is 5-for-8 otherwise at the plate.
Judge has faced Houck 12 separate times in his career. He is 3-for-10 and has walked twice. I would be shocked to see the right-hander attack head-on given how dominant Judge has been at the plate.
Over the last 15 days, Judge is hitting .394 with a 1.402 OPS. He’s walked (13) as many times as he has hits.
At this point, he deserves close to the Bonds treatment for how hot he is at the plate. I’m more than happy to take the leading MVP candidate to walk for a third straight game on Sunday.
Trent Grisham Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125)
Red Sox vs. Yankees | 7:10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Trent Grisham has been over this number in each of the last two games and has been playing much better at the plate in July (.241 average). But he remains under the Mendoza line, at the bottom of the Yankees lineup and has a lefty-on-lefty matchup on deck.
While Grisham is hitting slightly better against southpaws this season (.214 average vs. .185), his power is absolutely zapped (.552 OPS vs. .706). He doesn’t come around to score that often and in late high-leverage game situations could be subbed out if a lefty remains on the mound.
This is a bit of a reverse correlation play to boost the odds a bit. He has a poor 25.8% sweet-spot% and strikes out over a quarter of the times.
Tanner Houck is also a reverse splits guy. Lefties hit just .200 against him, with a .524 OPS, while righties sit at .250 and .644, respectively.
There simply isn’t enough volume for Grisham, who has really struggled in limited playing time this season. Even with him turning the lineup over and Soto/Judge close behind, I like boosting the parlay here and betting on Grisham to struggle much like he has all of 2024.
