Red Sox vs Phillies Odds, Picks | MLB Predictions Today
| Boston Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-112 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +1.5 -175 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-108 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -1.5 +145 |
On Thursday, we'll have the rubber match of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park.
Philadelphia took game one on Tuesday before Boston claimed game two in a high-scoring affair.
The Phillies have the best record in the National League and a 10-game lead on the Braves in the NL East.
The Red Sox (34-34), on the other hand, are fighting to stay above .500 and stay in the playoff race. Currently, they're 14 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and likely have their sights set on the wild card race, where they're two games back at the moment.
Tonight’s game features a high-octane pitching matchup, with Tanner Houck facing off against Aaron Nola.
Red Sox vs Phillies odds have the Red Sox as -112 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8.5 (-105o / -115u).
So, here's our Red Sox vs Phillies prediction for Thursday.
Boston Red Sox
Houck is in the midst of a major breakout season. The former first-round pick has posted a 1.91 ERA across 85 innings while striking out 84 opponents.
After posting a 5.01 ERA last year and never having more than 106 innings in the majors in a single season, this has seemingly come out of nowhere.
Houck’s peripheral numbers don’t quite match his ERA, but they aren’t too bad either. He has a 3.24 xERA, 2.22 FIP and a 2.92 SIERA.
He's benefitted from not allowing the long ball, as Houck has the second-lowest HR/FB ratio in the MLB at just 3.7%.
One major way that Houck has improved is by dramatically decreasing his walk rate. He had a 8.9% walk rate over the last two seasons before cutting it in half to just 4.5% this year. This gives him a 91st-percentile walk rate.
Houck ranks 16th in Stuff+ out of 74 qualified pitchers this season. He's also 23rd in Location+, which gives him the fourth-best Pitching+ in the league.
Houck’s strikeout rate is in the 68th percentile, but he has just a 39th-percentile whiff rate. This is largely because is living in the strike zone, as he has the eighth-highest zone%.
Boston’s offense has been slightly above average this season. It ranks 14th in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. The Red Sox are fifth in ISO, seventh in SLG and ninth in OBP.
They have the third-highest BABIP in the league but are striking out at the third-highest rate. The Red Sox rank 13th in hard-hit rate, 11th in barrel rate and 18th in exit velocity.
Philadelphia Phillies
Nola will take the mound for the Phillies as the second part of this high-profile pitching matchup.
Nola is in the first year of his seven-year contract, and he's performed up to this billing to this point in the season. He has a 2.77 ERA with a 3.29 xERA and 3.70 SIERA.
Nola ranks 30th out of 74 pitchers in Stuff+, but he's second in Location+ and 12th in Pitching+. Nola is in the 33rd percentile in whiff rate and 54th percentile in strikeout rate.
His success has largely come due to his command and avoiding hard contact, as he ranks in the 71st percentile in barrel rate and hard-hit rate, as well as the 70th percentile in average exit velocity and 69th percentile in walk rate.
The Philadelphia offense ranks fourth in wOBA and fifth in wRC+ this season. It's also fourth in OBP, fifth in SLG, seventh in ISO and fifth in BABIP. It also has the third-highest walk rate.
The Phillies also have just the 19th-highest strikeout rate, so they're putting plenty of balls into play and getting on base with walks.
Philadelphia is sixth in hard-hit rate, but it's just 14th in exit velocity and 13th in barrel rate. It may be outperforming its statcast data by a little bit, but overall, this is a strong offensive profile.
Red Sox vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two teams make for a fairly even matchup. Both pitchers have pitched well on the season but have outperformed their underlying numbers.
These two offenses are also above average and capable of taking advantage of mistakes.
Despite Nola’s command metrics, I think that Houck has been a bit better this season. Houck will have the tougher matchup on the mound, but I'm trusting his stuff and I think that he can continue this success.
Nola also may be able to turn in a quality start, but I think Boston will be able to score at least a couple of runs off of him.
The moneyline on this game is split pretty evenly, but I think that the Red Sox are the better value to back over these first five innings. I like taking Boston on the F5 moneyline at -110, as I have more faith in Houck in this matchup.
This line is available at FanDuel right now, and I would take this to -115.
