Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -120 | 8 -110 / -110 | -1.5 +136 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +102 | 8 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -164 |
Are the Red Sox back? After starting the season 5-8, Boston rebounded to go 7-3 over its last 10 games, capped off with a 12-run outburst on Sunday against Milwaukee to win its third series in a row.
Baltimore enters this series red hot as well. The Birds have won six games in a row, and 10 of their last 12. They've enjoyed a favorable schedule thus far — facing the Athletics, White Sox, Nationals and Tigers — and have taken advantage.
Boston took two of three against Baltimore at Fenway park to begin the season, so as they begin a three-game set at Camden Yards, let’s see what the best bet is for Red Sox vs. Orioles on Monday.
Boston Red Sox
There might be hope with Chris Sale after all.
The once-perennial Cy Young Award candidate has struggled with injuries over the past three years, making just 11 starts. His season started with three brutal outings, over which he posted an 11.25 ERA after allowing 15 earned runs in 12 frames.
Then we saw a glimpse of the old Sale. He allowed just one run and three hits over six innings while striking out 11 against Minnesota. That was his highest strikeout total in a start since 2019. The effort lowered his ERA to 8.00 and his xERA to 5.04.
Which Sale will we see more often? The other concern is that his control is still shaky. Even in his last outing, Sale walked two and hit two batters. He has a 10.1% walk rate, which is nearly double his career average.
Boston’s offense has left little for concern so far this season. The Red Sox have scored the third-most runs in the league (132) and their 30 home runs are tied for fourth. Eight of those long balls have come off the bat of Rafael Devers.
Baltimore Orioles
Similar to Sale, Dean Kremer is also coming off a terrific outing after three disasters.
Kremer’s first three starts saw him allow 13 runs over 12 1/3 innings (9.49 ERA). He then delivered 6 2/3 scoreless innings — with four hits and six strikeouts — against the Nationals in one of the better outings of his career.
Kremer mostly throws his fastball, which he mixes with a changeup, cutter, sweeper and sinker. He ranks in the bottom 20% of the league in strikeouts, and teams have had no issues getting on base against him this season. Opponents have a .395 xwOBA against Kremer and have jumped on his fastball.
Baltimore's offense, a fun mix of young stars and solid veterans, ranks fourth in the league in wRC+. Jorge Mateo has come out of nowhere to bat .360 with a 190 wRC+ while Adley Rutschman, Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins have also hit the ball really well.
Red Sox vs. Orioles Betting Pick
Sale and Kremer are coming off excellent starts, but there are plenty of reasons to pause. Kremer has a 6.91 xERA and does not have the stuff to generate swings and misses often. While some people are hopeful Sale has turned the corner, I’m still not ready to believe.
Sale has an xERA of 5.04 and his average exit velocity allowed is in the bottom 25% of the league. Teams have a .564 wOBA against his fastball and a .631 wOBA against his sinker. Even in his impressive start against the Twins, five of the 10 balls put in play had an average exit velocity of over 91 mph. He is either striking guys out or getting hit hard.
We've already seen this matchup before — back on April 1. Kremer and Sale both got the ball in a game that ended in a 9-8 walk-off win for the Red Sox. Neither of these pitchers made it to the fourth inning; through the first three innings, we saw a combined 12 runs.
Baltimore lit Sale up for seven runs in three innings with Ryan Mountcastle, Hays and Mullins all taking him deep. The Orioles totaled seven hits and a pair of walks. Boston put up five runs on six hits against Kremer, with Alex Verdugo and Adam Duvall hitting home runs.
All three contests in the first series between these teams went well over the total, with an average of 16.7 runs per game. I’m fading Sale and Kremer and will back the more reliable offenses.
Pick: Over 8 (-110) |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
