Red Sox vs. Cardinals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +100 |
The Boston Red Sox will roll out Nick Pivetta in St. Louis against left-hander Matthew Liberatore for the Cardinals. The Cardinals won a slugfest in the first game of the series, while game two was a pitcher's duel between Kutter Crawford and Miles Mikolas. What will the final game of the series between the Red Sox and Cardinals provide?
Let's take a look at my Red Sox vs Cardinals pick.
Boston Red Sox
Pivetta returned to the Red Sox rotation last week after missing over a month with an injury. The Red Sox righty returned to mixed results, allowing seven runs in 9.2 innings against the Rays and Braves. Pivetta punched out eight hitters in his last start against the Rays, so he'll hope to continue that momentum in his third start back.
Since returning, Pivetta has surrendered five home runs — three against Atlanta and two against Tampa Bay. That's an unfortunate trend worth watching for Pivetta.
Boston has the better lineup in the matchup, but it's still a largely middle-of-the-pack hitting team from top to bottom. The Red Sox lineup is vastly different than when the year started. Trevor Story is done for the year, Triston Casas has a rib fracture and Masataka Yoshida is also hurt. Gone are three middle-of-the-order bats, and it's borderline impossible to replace three hitters of that caliber.
The real problem is replacing the on-base machine in Casas. Dominic Smith and Garrett Cooper came from outside the organization to replace the struggling Bobby Dalbec, and both have sub-50 wRC+s.
At least Rafael Devers is hot and back to looking like the franchise cornerstone, hitting a home run in four straight games. Connor Wong and Rob Refsnyder are the Red Sox's top hitting duo, as the journeyman Refsnyder boasts a 172 wRC+, and Wong, who came to Boston in the Mookie Betts trade, owns a 163 wRC+ at the catcher spot.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals don't have a concrete plan for Liberatore. He began the season in the bullpen — his first year as a full-time reliever — only for Steven Matz to get hurt and push Liberatore back into the rotation. The issue is Liberatore threw 50 and 60 pitches in his two starts. I'd imagine the Cardinals plan to stretch Liberatore to 75 pitches this start. The 26-year-old mainly gets outs via the ground ball, ranking in the 81st percentile in ground-ball rate.
You can't point to the Cardinals' offensive inconsistency as the culprit of their slow 19-26 start. The Cardinals' lineup ranks in the bottom 10 in baseball with a 94 wRC+. Although the Cardinals put up 10 runs in the series opener against the Red Sox, that performance is a total outlier.
Plus, the pair of highly-paid sluggers, Nolan Arenado (102 wRC+) and Paul Goldschmidt (79 wRC+), have struggled. Goldschmidt is hitting better of late, batting over .300 in the past seven games after snapping his lengthy 0-for-31 hitless streak. The team's best statistical hitter, Willson Contreras, suffered a broken arm a few weeks ago, which means the Cardinals had to replace their best hitters with two mediocre hitters in Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pagés.
I'll give the Cardinals fans a positive offensive note: Nolan Gorman homered in each of the two games of this series. Is he finally getting hot? St. Louis' offense needs it.
Red Sox vs. Cardinals
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm looking at fading Liberatore here. The Cardinals don't see him as a starter and have to start him out of necessity. He's unlikely to throw more than four or five innings, giving way to mediocre Cardinals bullpen names like John King, Chris Roycroft, Kyle Leahy and Nick Robertson.
I love the Red Sox at just -110 on the moneyline, as they are the better of the two teams with a better pitcher.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (-110 via DraftKings)
