Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -186 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -1.5 -114 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+156 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +1.5 -105 |
The Rays took two out of three from the Yankees in a tight weekend series and will be out for more AL East blood Monday night when they travel to Baltimore.
The second-place Orioles have dropped three of their last five, but are they in a decent position here? Let's break it all down in our Rays vs. Orioles betting preview and prediction.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays remain nearly unstoppable. They've now won seven of their last nine games, though their last four contests have been decided by one run.
It speaks to how well the team has pitched in general, and the next man toeing the rubber for this team happens to be pretty great in his own right.
Shane McClanahan's ERA now stands at just 2.02, and he's struck out 31.7% of the batters he's faced. Opponents own just a .190 expected batting average against the lefty, while his expected slugging sits at .300, a full 100 points lower than the league average.
That's all well and good, but he's also given up four home runs in his last three starts, which is a bit tricky with his walk issues returning.
McClanahan has now issued a free pass to 9.9% of the batters he's faced this season and has walked four over his last two outings, spanning 11 innings. It's elevated his pitch count, and it's also made those long-balls all the more hazardous with more runners reaching base.
The good news here is Tampa is still sixth in wRC+ over the last week, leaning on a .247 isolated power. It's managed to hit most pitches incredibly well and comes in at 10th against the sinker and the slider, two pitches featured heavily by Baltimore's starter on Monday.
Baltimore Orioles
Let's talk about Kyle Gibson for a second.
He's certainly looking like the failed pitching prospect we all remember, turning in his worst start of the season last time out with six earned runs on 10 hits over 6.2 innings against the Royals.
The troubling thing here, unlike in years past, is it's much harder to pinpoint the issue with the right-hander.
Gibson has had his fair share of issues keeping the ball in the yard during his career, so the fact that he's pitched to a 4.61 ERA while allowing just five home runs is kind of bonkers. He hasn't done himself any favors with a 9.2% barrel rate and a high 42.3% hard-hit rate, and his ground ball rate has come down for a second straight year to 45.4%.
It would seem he's still giving up plenty of quality contact, but it just hasn't happened to leave the yard yet. I'd tend to agree with the assertion his 5.19 xERA makes — that he's a bad pitcher who may get even worse this year.
On offense, the Orioles can hang their hat on ranking third in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and seventh overall for the past week. The O's have walked in 10.6% of their plate appearances during that time and own a high 11.2% walk rate against lefties, which is something to keep in mind in this matchup.
Rays vs Orioles Betting Pick
The Orioles should be in as good a spot as any here against McClanahan. While the lefty has been dominant, a team with this kind of patience and this kind of power against southpaws is going to be a potential landmine.
The Orioles may have a few losses to their name over the last week, but they've remained a dangerous team at the plate.
I have no faith in Gibson against the Rays, however, so while I think the Orioles offense could break through and give them a better chance than their pregame odds would indicate, I don't see that as the best possible bet in this one.
Instead, I'll side with the over here. It's hit in six of the last 10 games for Tampa Bay and three of the last four for Baltimore, which is a testament to how well these teams can hit.
Pick: Over 8 (-110) |
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