Rays vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-126 | 9 -112 / -108 | -1.5 +126 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+108 | 9 -112 / -108 | +1.5 -152 |
The Tampa Bay Rays are going for history on Friday evening as they put their undefeated 13-0 record on the line against the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Rays are tied for the modern record with 13 straight wins to start the season and with the pitching matchup as is on Friday, there's a very decent chance they make history.
Our Rays vs Blue Jays betting prediction and pick is below. Let's dive right in.
Tampa Bay Rays
Not only are the Rays 13-0, but they are blowing teams out of the water. Their run differential is a borderline insane +71. That's better than the total run differential for the 92-win Cleveland Guardians last season. Tampa Bay's 164 wRC+ (all stats through Wednesday's games) is easily the best in baseball. In fact, the gap between the Rays in first and the Dodgers in second is the same as the gap between the Dodgers in second and the Marlins in 21st.
And offense isn't even their calling card. The Rays are easily the best run prevention team as well. Their ERA and FIP are easily the best in baseball, and their defense is third, per FanGraphs.
Now the but …
Tampa Bay hasn't played a team even close to as good as the Blue Jays. The Jays are off to a strong start and are 8-5, despite playing their first 10 games on the road. Toronto's lineup is as deep as you'll find in the AL, and its pitching and defense also has some elite pieces.
Regardless, I am going to be on the Rays once again. In particular, I'll target the first five innings.
Jeffrey Springs is getting the buzz, but Drew Rasmussen is quietly putting together a potential Cy Young Award-winning season. He hasn't allowed a run in 13 innings (albeit against the A's and Nationals), but the advanced numbers show he's legit. His Stuff+ is tied with Jacob deGrom for the best among all starters.
Toronto Blue Jays
On the flip side of that coin, Jose Berrios has had far from a dream start. He has a pair of losses and a 11.17 ERA through his first two starts of the season. Berrios has been a favorite fade of mine in seasons past, but given his dreadful start, it must be a lock to fade him every which way on Friday, right?
Ironically, the numbers under the hood are actually a little better. His Stuff+ is improved and his FIP (3.20) suggests he's one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season.
So while I still quite like Rasmussen and the Rays as a whole, I am actually going to be looking at the under as well. Unders haven't been super successful for Rays games this season — namely because they've been hitting the cover off the ball — so this will be a smaller unit play.
Rays vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
Rasmussen is a name to keep an eye on. He's put himself into the Cy Young long shot conversation with his fast start and the advanced numbers absolutely LOVE him. The surface numbers for Berrios are ugly, but he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball through the early part of the season.
As such, I'll be playing the Rays -117 on the moneyline, but I'll also be betting the first five under. I'm targeting the first five for that under because both bullpens are been used somewhat heavily in the past few days. I will play the Rays moneyline to -133 and the first five under to under 4.5 -115.
Pick: Rays Moneyline (-117) | 1st Five Innings Under 4.5 (+105) |
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