Rangers vs. Tigers Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -148 | 9 -102 / -120 | -1.5 +106 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+126 | 9 -102 / -120 | +1.5 -128 |
The Detroit Tigers host the Texas Rangers on Wednesday afternoon. Detroit will likely send Joey Wentz to the mound against Dane Dunning of the Rangers. The Tigers may use an opener, but Wentz, who has struggled all season, is still expected to get the bulk of the innings. Dunning, on the other hand, is likely overachieving, but has done about as much as the Rangers can ask for as a fixture in the rotation.
So where's the betting edge in this matchup? Let's dive in and come up with a Rangers vs. Tigers best bet for Wednesday.
Texas Rangers
Dunning has hovered around a 50% ground-ball rate over the course of his career, and even though this is his best season so far, he has dropped below that threshold. Even still, he's been solid as a rock. The sinker-baller ranks amongst the middle of the pack in Average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit Rate. He is only striking out 15.4% of hitters this season, but is walking just 5.9%. Yes, his 3.99 xERA is much higher than his 1.67 ERA, but that xERA is still serviceable, especially with a Barrel Rate around 6%.
Texas can slug the ball, and this is where my lean comes into play for this game. In May, the Rangers rank fourth in wRC+ against lefties (142) and have a 10.6% walk rate with a .866 OPS. Josh Smith, Corey Seager and Josh Jung all have xwOBA's over .400 off of lefties this season. Additionally, Adolis García, Jonah Heim and Marcus Semien are all at .320 or above, meaning the Rangers lineup features six solid or great hitters off of southpaws.
Corey Seager three-run BOMB! pic.twitter.com/kkz9eTjZ7S
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 29, 2023
In relief, Texas tends to have some issues. In May, the Rangers have a 5.05 xFIP with a nearly 10% walk rate. This is why it is tough to back the Rangers with a steep line against Wentz. The Rangers only have three arms behind Dunning with a sub-4.00 xFIP.
Detroit Tigers
Wentz is just a horrid pitcher. He held a 6.45 ERA in April and somehow increased that with a 9.30 ERA in May. His 7.80 ERA is terrible, and even though his xERA is 5.47, it is still far above where it needs to be. He ranks in the 32nd percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 30th percentile in Hard-Hit Rate. He is only striking out 17.2% of batters and walking 8.2%. The Rangers should feast on his pitching.
The Tigers aren't a terrible hitting team off of right-handers. They have a 100 wRC+, which is around league average. On the season, they have six hitters above a .320 xwOBA off of righties. The difference in this matchup is the power capabilities and starting pitcher for each side.
In May, the Tigers rank in the middle of the league with a 4.32 xFIP, giving them an edge over Texas. However, if Wentz is walking hitters and allowing hard-hit balls, that'll likely negate the bullpen's impacts on this game.
Rangers vs. Tigers Betting Pick
Texas is a great hitting team, and even if Wentz doesn't throw, the Rangers have a 109 wRC+ off of righties this month. They should hit well and go over their team total. Take this total from 5 (-118), and play it to 5.5 (-120). The Rangers should score early and often.
