Rangers vs Orioles Odds | Thursday MLB Prediction
| Texas Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+158 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -115 |
| Baltimore Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-190 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -1.5 -105 |
The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles will face off in the first match of a four-game set on Thursday at Camden Yards.
Baltimore (50-30) is among the best teams in baseball, but still trails the New York Yankees in the AL East. However, the O's have a seven-game lead in the AL Wild Card race.
The Rangers (37-43) are not off to the start they sought. After winning the World Series last year, they sit 7 1/2 games back of the AL West lead and three games out of a Wild Card slot.
Rangers vs Orioles odds have the Orioles as -190 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 (-110o/-110u). Find out how I'm betting the run line for my Rangers vs Orioles prediction below.
Texas Rangers
Jon Gray takes the mound for the Rangers on Thursday.
Gray is on pace for a career-best 3.03 ERA, but his 4.31 xERA and 3.79 SIERA suggest he's overperformed.
Gray’s start on Sunday was his first full start since coming off the IL at the beginning of June. It was also the first time he'd pitched more than three innings since the injury, and he capitalized with six shutout frames.
Out of 101 pitchers with 70 or more innings this year, Gray ranks 90th in Stuff+ and 67th in Pitching+. He ranks higher in Location+ (24th) behind a reasonably low 6.4% walk rate (73rd percentile).
Gray’s most significant issue is allowing hard contact. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 28th percentile in barrel rate allowed, 18th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, and seventh percentile in average exit velocity allowed.
After winning the World Series last year, the Rangers offense has regressed in 2024. They rank 23rd in wRC+, 23rd in wOBA, 19th in OBP and 22nd in SLG. They strike out at the seventh-lowest rate in baseball and walk at the 12th-highest rate, so plate discipline hasn’t been the issue.
Instead, the issue has been quality of contact. Texas ranks 20th in hard-hit rate, 22nd in barrel rate, and 24th in exit velocity. Because of this, the Rangers are 27th in xwOBACON and 23rd in xwOBA. They've been among the league's worst offenses in June, ranking 29th in wRC+ and wOBA.
Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Burnes has been everything the Orioles hoped he would be when they traded for him this offseason.
His outstanding 2.35 ERA ranks towards the top of the league among qualified pitchers. His xERA of 2.78 and SIERA of 3.55 suggest he has been a bit lucky but still very good.
Among 74 qualified pitchers, Burnes ranks seventh in Stuff+, 15th in Location+, and 2nd in Pitching+.
Burnes’ Baseball Savant page lights up red. He ranks in the 72nd percentile in whiff rate, 89th percentile in chase rate, and 62nd percentile in strikeout rate. His command has also been strong, ranking 75th percentile in walk rate.
Burnes has avoided hard contact this year as well. He is 94th percentile in hard-hit rate allowed, 69th percentile in barrel rate allowed, and 72nd in average exit velocity allowed. His 49.3% ground-ball rate also ranks in the 80th percentile.
Baltimore’s offense is among the league's best. The O's rank either first or second in wRC+, wOBA, SLG, ISO, runs, RBIs, home runs, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity.
Their main weakness has been their lack of plate discipline. Baltimore ranks 28th in walk rate, so the O's have merely MLB's 13th-best team OBP.
Rangers vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
Baltimore’s offense is considered one of the best, if not the best, in the entire league. The O's will be a tough matchup for Gray, who has gotten solid results this season but struggled with allowing quality contact.
Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year and has a favorable matchup. The Rangers haven't been hitting well this season, especially not lately.
I believe Baltimore has a significant advantage on Thursday, including on the mound, in the batter's box, and in the bullpen — Baltimore's bullpen has been much stronger than Texas'.
Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+104, BetRivers) | Play to -1.5 (-105)
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