Rangers vs Blue Jays Odds
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | +114 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -108o / -112u | -135 |
The Texas Rangers will look to keep their chances of winning a series in Toronto alive — if they can win on Saturday after dropping the opener on Friday. Can the Rangers win, or will Kevin Gausman lift the Blue Jays to another win?
Below is my Rangers vs Blue Jays preview, along with my pick and prediction.
Texas Rangers
The World Series hangover was a real issue for the Rangers early in the year, but not all hope is lost in the division race. Even with the slow start, the Rangers trail the Astros by just three games for the AL West lead.
July has proven to be the best month of the Rangers season, tracking to shatter their highest monthly win total (14 in April). One of the main reasons for the Rangers' renaissance is their highly-priced middle-infielders, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager producing like they did last year. Seager leads the Rangers with a 176 wRC+ this month, trailed by Semien at 159 and first baseman Nathaniel Lowe at 151.
Another similarity the trio shares? They each have four home runs this month. Funny enough, the one missing piece in this lineup — Adolis Garcia hit a homer on Friday. The man nicknamed "El Bombi" for his ability to hit homers hasn't done a lot of hitting this year. Sure, 18 homers is solid, but Garcia's 83 wRC+ and .209 batting average leaves a major void in the Rangers lineup. He'll need to use his Friday tank as a springboard to finish the season strong.
I talked about Gausman’s peripherals indicating possible positive regression, but Michael Lorenzen is on the opposite end of the spectrum. Lorenzen enters this start with a 3.53 ERA with a 5.08 FIP. Nothing about Lorenzen's numbers other than his ERA stands out in a positive way. He gets hit hard (27th percentile barrel rate), rarely strikes out batters (20th percentile) and ranks in the 13th percentile in walk rate. It's only a matter of time until the wheels fall off for the veteran right, but I hope the luck stays on his side for one more outing against a dreadful offense.
The walks in particular have stung Lorenzen of late, walking 4+ batters in three of his past four starts. Those walks led to a pair of five earned run outings versus the Angels and Orioles. Since Andrew Heaney didn't add much length, the Rangers will hope Lorenzen can make it past the fifth inning.
Toronto Blue Jays
It’s been a total disappointment of a year for the Toronto Blue Jays — particularly on the offensive end. They own an 87 wRC+ in July, ranking 27th in MLB — only ahead of the Guardians, Angels, and White Sox. The only bats providing any value right now is Vladimir Guerrero Jr, George Springer, and Spencer Horowitz.
One of the best signs for the Blue Jays is Springer finally getting on track. After struggling so mightily in April and May, Springer managed to lift his season-long wRC+ to a respectable 98. With other names like Bo Bichette, Dalton Varsho, Danny Jansen dealing with various injuries or struggles, it’s paramount for the veteran Springer to provide offensive value.
Worth noting — the Blue Jays cobbled together 12 hits in the series opening win versus the Rangers, courtesy of Ernie Clement's walk-off single against All-Star closer Kirby Yates. Is that a sign of things to come for the Blue Jays offense or a one-off performance? I'm leaning on the season-long sample that says the Blue Jays have a bad offense.
Another source of disappointment for the Blue Jays is ace starter Gausman, who owns an elevated 4.55 ERA with a 5.13 xERA but just a 3.92 FIP. It’s strange to see such disparity in xERA and FIP, so it’s tough to gauge what to expect from Gausman in the 2nd half.
Gausman’s four-seamer has proven to be his best pitch over the years, but that’s far from the case this year. According to Fangraphs pitch values, his fastball is -3.5, down from 3.5 last year and 9.5 in 2022. That’s the root cause of Gausman’s deteriorating K/9 (8.86, his lowest since 2018) and a 1.30 HR/9 — his highest since 2019.
So, will Gausman turn it around in 2024? Maybe a bit, but the market still values him as a top-flight pitcher, which isn’t the case. His mediocre pitching morphed him into the pitcher several MLB teams passed around at the deadline before he finally caught on with the Giants, then the Blue Jays. I can’t see him solving these issues just till next year.
Lastly, the Blue Jays will be short in the bullpen, as Yimi Garcia got traded on Friday, and Chad Green threw an inning on Friday. They already have a poor bullpen with Green — I'm not sure how the Blue Jays get to the finish line if Green doesn't pitch, and the bridge to Green is a shaky one with Garcia gone.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Betting Pick & Prediction
The only slight advantage the Blue Jays have in this matchup is on the mound, and with Gausman's inconsistency, the gap is miniscule. The Rangers offense is much better over a larger sample along with the bullpen advantage.
I just think the market is too high on Gausman because I can't find another reason to tab the Blue Jays as -150 favorites. The value on the Rangers at +125 on the moneyline is too good to pass on here, even if backing Lorenzen is an uneasy task.
