The Washington Nationals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 3, 2026. First pitch from Nationals Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet PT.
The Nationals are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Nationals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction
- Pirates vs Nationals Pick: Nationals Moneyline (-142)
My Pirates vs Nationals best bet is on Washington to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Nationals Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 9.5 -114o / -106u | +120 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 9.5 -114o / -106u | -142 |
- Pirates vs Nationals moneyline: Pirates +120, Nationals -142
- Pirates vs Nationals over/under: 9.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Pirates vs Nationals spread: Pirates +1.5 (-172), Nationals -1.5 (+142)
Pirates vs Nationals Probable Pitchers
| Mitch Keller (RHP, PIT) | Stat | Foster Griffin (LHP, WAS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-5 | W-L | 8-2 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 4.87 / 4.99 | ERA / xERA | 2.93 / 3.92 |
| 4.08 / 4.44 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21 / 3.60 |
| 10.0 | K-BB% | 18.3 |
| 39.7 | GB% | 44.0 |
| .289 | BABIP | .240 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 102 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Nationals MLB Betting Preview
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the Nationals moneyline.
You can check out Washington's expected runs and projected win percentage, and dive deeper into this and other matchups by checking out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO baseball tool that gives you access to all the input data he uses to project games every day
Pirates vs Nationals Pick, Betting Analysis
Washington is coming off two straight beatings of the Red Sox, with 8-1 and 10-2 scores. They rank seventh in wRC+ (123) in the majors over the last week, but Pittsburgh is fourth with 141.
However, the key here is the matchup.
The Nationals get the pitching edge with Foster Griffin, who sports a 1.04 WHIP and better overall metrics than Mitch Keller.
Not only that, but the Pirates have a severe split: they are the second-best team in wRC+ this season against right-handers with 116, but fall to the 22nd spot vs. lefties like Griffin with just 89.
Pick: Nationals (-142, 0.5u, FanDuel | Bet to -150)
