The Toronto Blue Jays host the Pittsburgh Pirates on May 22, 2026. First pitch from Rogers Centre is scheduled for 7:07 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SN1.
The Blue Jays are favored by -167 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Pirates are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Blue Jays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction
- Pirates vs Blue Jays Pick: Bubba Chandler Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+131)
My Pirates vs Blue Jays best bet is on Bubba Chandler to record three or fewer strikeouts tonight. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Odds
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -157 | 8 -110o / -110u | +138 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -110o / -110u | -167 |
- Pirates vs Blue Jays moneyline: Pirates +138, Blue Jays -167
- Pirates vs Blue Jays over/under: 8 (-110o / -110u)
- Pirates vs Blue Jays spread: Pirates +1.5 (-157), Blue Jays -1.5 (+130)
Pirates vs Blue Jays Probable Pitchers
| RHP Bubba Chandler (PIT) | Stat | RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | W-L | 3-3 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 5.14 / 4.93 | ERA / xERA | 3.45 / 3.35 |
| 5.84 / 5.65 | FIP / xFIP | 3.08 / 3.44 |
| 2.6 | K-BB% | 19.0 |
| 32.8 | GB% | 37.7 |
| .228 | BABIP | .276 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 100 | Location+ | 109 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Bubba Chandler's leash is shortening by the start. The former top pitching prospect has fallen apart in 2026 due to a myriad of issues. His strikeouts are down, while his walks and hard-hit rate are up.
Chandler's groundball rate has cratered to a career-low 32.8%, and his 1.50 HR/9 is a career-worst. This is far from the pitcher we witnessed flash at the end of 2025, albeit with a 4.02 ERA.
Regardless, we will use his down season to take advantage of his pitching props. The Pirates starter has struck out more than four batters twice this season through nine starts, while going under four in three outings.
He was just pulled from his most recent start after facing a season-low 16 batters and could have a short leash again today.
The Blue Jays' offense does not rank well vs RHP (25th), but they do not strike out. Toronto's 18.7% K rate vs RHP is the best in baseball.
It could be argued that Chandler goes deep enough to exceed four strikeouts against this putrid offense, but his past three opponents, the Phillies, Giants and Diamondbacks, ranked poorly vs. RHP as well. He did not post more than four strikeouts in any of those starts.
Pick: Bubba Chandler Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+131, DraftKings)
