The St. Louis Cardinals host the Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, May 19. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CARD and MLB.TV.
Both teams enter at -110 on the moneyline, but the Pirates are favored on the run line at -1.5 (+145), while the Cardinals come in at +1.5 (-176). The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 8 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Pirates vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction, Picks
- Pirates vs Cardinals Pick: Cardinals ML (-116)
My Pirates vs Cardinals best bet is on St. Louis to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pirates vs Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 8 -111o / -109u | -110 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8 -111o / -109u | -110 |
- Pirates vs Cardinals Moneyline: Pirates ML -110, Cardinals ML -110
- Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under: 8
- Pirates vs Cardinals Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+145), Cardinals +1.5 (-176)
Pirates vs Cardinals Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Mitch Keller (PIT) | Stat | LHP Matthew Liberatore (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.2 |
| 3.59/4.27 | ERA / xERA | 4.40/5.84 |
| 3.32/3.94 | FIP / xFIP | 5.30/4.58 |
| 11.0% | K-BB% | 7.9% |
| 39.0% | GB% | 36.7% |
| .255 | BABIP | .310 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 98 |
| 105 | Location+ | 101 |
Pirates vs Cardinals Pick, Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I’m going with the Cardinals on the moneyline tonight against the Pirates in St. Louis.
The line is about -116. This has been moving in the Cardinals' direction; maybe there's not as big of an edge now as there was this morning when the line was closer to -108, but PRO makes this -127.
It's easy to see why with Matthew Liberatore on the mound against Mitch Keller.
The Pirates are much worse offensively against left-handed pitching; on the season, they have a 110 wRC+ against right-handed pitching but an 84 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Liberatore is giving up a lot of hits—a .310 BABIP so far—but that’ll come down.
Meanwhile, Mitch Keller is missing fewer bats. He’s got a career-worst K-rate so far and also huge luck in the home run department; he has a 5.9% HR/FB rate this year, whereas his career average is 11.3%.
I think we’re going to see regression in both departments with these starting pitchers: Liberatore’s BABIP is going to regress down to the mean, and Keller is going to start getting hit a little bit more.
There’s definitely value here on the Cardinals, considering it’s close to a coin-flip.
Pick: Cardinals ML (-116)
