The Los Angeles Dodgers (16-9) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (10-16) on Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
Aces clash at Chavez Ravine on Friday night when the Pirates' Paul Skenes takes on the Dodgers' Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Skenes (+260) and Yamamoto (+350) are currently the top-two betting favorites for the NL Cy Young Award entering Friday.
How should bettors approach this potential pitchers' duel? Find my MLB betting preview and Pirates vs Dodgers prediction and spread pick below.
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction, Spread Pick
- Pirates vs Dodgers pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+110 | Play to +100)
My Pirates vs Dodgers best bet is on the Dodgers to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs LA Dodgers Odds, Lines, Over/Under
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 7 -105o / -115u | +180 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 7 -105o / -115u | -220 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) | Stat | RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 0.93/2.18 | ERA /xERA | 2.87/2.06 |
| 2.02/1.81 | FIP / xFIP | 2.00/2.59 |
| 0.86 | WHIP | 0.80 |
| 28.7% | K-BB% | 22.0% |
| 63.5% | GB% | 56.6% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 114 | Location+ | 110 |
Pirates vs Dodgers Preview, Predictions
Dodgers Betting Preview: Yamamoto Cruising
This is a marquee pitching matchup, starting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has started 2025 looking like a Cy Young candidate, sporting a 0.93 ERA through five starts.
He's been dominant in all areas, ranking in the 94th percentile among qualified pitchers in strikeout rate and ground ball rate, as well as the 91st percentile in Expected ERA.
That all means that he's been tough to hit, and when Yamamoto has allowed contact, it's been on the ground.
This matchup with Yamamoto is trouble for the Pittsburgh Pirates, who come in sporting the eighth-lowest team batting average and the 10th-worst whiff rate. On top of that, they hold the 12th-highest groundball rate.
With all their tendencies playing into the strengths of Yamamoto, it's hard to predict much positive regression for the Pirates' lineup tonight, even if other metrics show they are due for some.
Pirates Betting Preview: Can Skenes Lead Bucs to Upset?
There certainly is not much of a gap on the mound as Paul Skenes will face the defending World Series champions tonight.
Like his counterpart, Skenes has been stellar, holding a 2.87 ERA and 0.80 WHIP while producing whiffs and groundballs with the best of them.
However, he's in for his toughest test to date with this Dodgers lineup. Los Angeles ranks second among MLB lineups in Expected wOBACON, despite holding a .231 team batting average. The Dodgers are seeing the ball very well, but they haven't been rewarded for it yet.
While I believe in Skenes' ability to navigate this lineup, it's the arms behind him that could ruin this one for Pittsburgh.
The Pirates' bullpen has been surprisingly solid to start this season, ranking eighth in ERA. However, their collective xFIP of 4.15 tells a much different story, indicating negative regression is on the horizon.
With the Dodgers' bats trending up and the majority of the Pirates' staff due to blow up, Los Angeles should have a good window to break this game open.
Pirates vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This is a must-watch matchup as we have two of the best young arms in baseball set to duel tonight.
It's very possible they could both be excellent, and the Dodgers cover the run line because of the Pirates' impending bullpen woes.
However, don't be surprised to see the Dodgers get Skenes into some trouble, which would only amplify their damage late in this matchup.
Back the Dodgers to cover the run line.
Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+110 | Play to +100)
Moneyline
The Dodgers' moneyline has less value than the run line.
Run Line (Spread)
I am taking the Dodgers on the run line.
Over/Under
I am avoiding the total.
Pirates vs Dodgers Betting Trends
- 93% of bets and 96% of the money are on the Dodgers moneyline
- 94% of bets and 91% of the money are on the game total to go OVER
- 92% of bets and 94% of the money are on the Dodgers to cover the run line (-1.5)
Dodgers vs Pirates Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif. |
| Date: | Friday, April 25 |
| Time: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | MLB Network; MLB.TV |
