I'll be honest: this SGP was supposed to be centered around a national holiday — Skenes day.
Instead, Mother Nature decided to play a cruel trick on us and rain yesterday's game out, but settling for the Detroit Tigers' Tarik Skubal and Pittsburgh Pirates' Jared Jones is a good consolation prize.
Again, these SGPs are long shots for a reason. You need a lot of variables to get fall in your favor, but I feel comfortable about these Pirates vs Tigers picks.
Here's my Pirates vs Tigers MLB Parlay: SGP Picks.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Pirates vs Tigers MLB Parlay: SGP Picks
- Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-165)
- Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts
The initial line for Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts was juiced to -170, but since I took Cruz plus money to strikeout multiple times, it relieves some of my concern of laying juice on this bet. Skubal has developed into one of baseball's best pitchers and has punched out 72 batters in 60 innings.
The Tigers ace loves strikeouts, and the Pirates lineup ranks in the top 10 in Strikeout Rate at 24.9%. They strike out an insane amount!
Plus, I'm buying into Skubal coming into the game energized and ready for a strong start after a poor start last outing against the Royals, when he allowed eight hits and four runs in 5.1 innings.
Skubal is an AL Cy Young contender for good reason. He's filthy, and the Pirates will taste the filth on Wednesday.
Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts
I'm expecting a full-on pitchers' duel in the first half of this doubleheader. Jones isn't Paul Skenes, but he's awesome in his own right.
Jones has struggled in the past three starts, allowing three runs in each and striking out fewer than seven in three of the past five starts. Nonetheless, I think the tide changes for Jones on Wednesday.
Just like when pitchers find holes in rookie hitters' games, hitters find holes in rookie pitchers' games. It's all about adjusting for young MLB players. It helps that the Tigers also strikeout 23% of the time and have plenty of strikeout candidates like Riley Greene, Jake Rogers, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter — all of whom punch out 22% of the time or more.
Moreover, Jones' early hot start is closer to his real talent level than his last five starts. The analytics suggest Jones should get on track again soon. He owns a 3.05 ERA and 3.59 FIP compared to an expected 2.91 FIP. There's a fair amount of value in Jones' strikeout prop compared to Skubal's, so I love adding both pitchers to go over 6.5 Ks.
