Phillies vs. Rays Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9.5 +100 / -120 | +1.5 -175 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 9.5 +100 / -120 | -1.5 +145 |
We all knew that regression was coming for the Tampa Bay Rays after their historic start to the season, and while they have steadily cooled down since then, this series has really made their downturn apparent.
The Philadelphia Phillies have pulled off back-to-back victories as underdogs in the first two games of this series and have proven they can hang with one of the best teams in baseball.
While their bats got hot in last night's win, this game may look very different despite the men on the mound.
Let's dive in and uncover the best bet for the series finale between the Phillies and Rays.
Philadelphia Phillies
The defending National League champions took a bit to get going at the plate this season, as they had two big holes in their order and an underperforming superstar.
However, with Bryce Harper back in the middle of the lineup, some surprising contributions from the bottom of the lineup, and Trea Turner heating up, the Fightin' Phils are right back in the playoff picture.
Overall, this Phillies lineup is right in the middle of the pack offensively, as they are 15th in wRC+ and 11th in wOBA. However, they have been outperforming expectations at the dish as their xBA is 11 points lower than their actual team batting average.
Their regression could come early in this matchup as they will have to face the Rays' opener, Shawn Armstrong. Armstrong will be opening for the second time this season, and he's been dynamite in his first few appearances.
In 12 games this season, Armstrong has a 1.15 ERA and an xBA against of .198. He's been tough to hit and will likely eat up the first two innings of this game and keep the hot Phils off the board.
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Tampa Bay Rays
In the open, I talked about how the Rays were due to cool off in all areas, and while they have, their regression has only begun at the plate. They have dropped to 11th xwOBACON but are still maintaining their team batting average of .262.
However, their clear drop-off in the quality of contact is an indication of impending regression. Their xBA is 14 points lower than their actual team batting average, and the Phillies starter may help them get closer to those expectations.
Left-hander Cristopher Sanchez has done an excellent job of filling in the back-end of the Phillies rotation as he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA through his first four starts. His sinker-slider repertoire has been tough to square up as opposing batters have an xBA of just .234 against him, with a Hard-hit Rate of only 36.9%.
Phillies vs. Rays Betting Pick
This series has been exciting, and yesterday's matchup was the highlight as it was a competitive run-scoring affair. However, today's matchup is going to look very different.
Both of these lineups are due to cool off, and each starting pitcher will undoubtedly help them do that. While there are some question marks in the Rays pen behind Armstrong, they should be able to get nine outs after him.
Take the first five innings under 5.5 runs and get ahead of the offensive regression.
