MLB returns from the All-Star break on Friday with what should be an entertaining slate. The early window features an NL matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates.
Let's take a look at a few elements in this game and dive into my Phillies vs Pirates same-game parlay, which features picks for Aaron Nola, Andrew McCutchen and a moneyline side.
Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Phillies vs Pirates MLB Parlay: SGP Picks
- Aaron Nola Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
- Andrew McCutchen Under 0.5 Hits (+125)
- Phillies ML (-135)
Parlay Odds: +480 (DraftKings)
Philadelphia hands the ball to right-hander Aaron Nola, and he should be an excellent candidate to back. Nola is 11-4 through 19 starts this season with a commanding 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger as the right-hander boasts a 3.28 xERA and ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to back Nola in the prop market as he ranks in the 88th percentile in chase rate and 67th percentile in strikeout rate.
You can currently find his strikeout prop at 6.5, a total he has surpassed in each of his past three starts. Nola has also surpassed this number in five of his past seven starts against Pittsburgh.
He is 4-1 over that stretch with a 3.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
If we are backing Nola to put together a strong performance on the mound, then a correlated outcome would be for Pirates outfielder Andrew McCutchen to struggle at the dish.
McCutchen has struggled in the contact department this season, posting a .226 BA. He also ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and squared-up rate.
These woes are likely to continue against Nola, a pitcher whom McCutchen possesses a mere .158 BA against through 20 career plate appearances.
Sticking with the theme of correlated outcomes, simultaneously backing Nola while fading a Pittsburgh hitter increases the probability of Philadelphia winning this game. The hitting edge clearly goes to the Phillies.
They rank higher than the Pirates in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases. Meanwhile, the pitching advantage also lies with Philadelphia as left-hander Martin Perez takes the mound for Pittsburgh.
Nola paces Perez in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Additionally, the Phillies' bullpen outranks the Pirates' in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
The only "advantage" for Pittsburgh is home-field, but Philadelphia's .581 road win percentage far outweighs the Pirates' .478 home win percentage.
