Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total Runs | Run Line |
| -134 | 7 -124 / +102 | -1.5 +132 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total Runs | Run Line |
+114 | 7 -124 / +102 | +1.5 -160 |
The Phillies took the first game of this series 4-2 on Monday. The Marlins thought they had the series evened up last night, but the Phillies rallied for three runs in the top of the ninth inning off newly acquired closer David Robertson.
The comeback keeps the Phillies in the second NL Wild Card spot and extends their lead over the Marlins to 1.5 games.
The Phillies are guaranteed at least a split in this series, but they will go for the series victory tonight, and they are favored to do so with ace Zack Wheeler on the mound. The Marlins will counter with Braxton Garrett.
Philadelphia Phillies
Last night, I backed the Phillies to score three runs, but I thought they would do so off Sandy Alcantara, against whom they have had a lot of success. Instead, Alcantara had one of his best outings of the season, tossing eight shutout innings and allowing just four hits.
Bryce Harper got the Phillies on the board with a RBI double to tie the game. He may not be hitting many home runs (just five) as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, but he's still been impactful. He has 15 runs batted in over the past month. He's also is hitting .329 with one home run and 13 RBI in the seventh inning or later.
Nick Castellanos hit the go-ahead two-run homer after Harper's double and it had to feel good for him. Over the past 15 days, Castellanos has been mired in an extended slump with a .136 batting average. He has hit .306 off left-handed pitchers this season, but he is just 1-for-5 off Braxton Garrett. However, several of his teammates have good numbers against Garrett.
Harper and Kyle Schwarber are both 2-for-6 against him. J.T. Realmuto is 3-for-7 with a home run and three runs batted in. Edmundo Sosa, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm are all hitting .500 against Garrett. Turner (two) and Bohm have both homered off him.
Since the All-Star break, the Phillies are hitting just .231 as a team and averaging 4.2 runs per game. However, that may be enough to win with Zack Wheeler on the mound.
Wheeler has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts (Guardians and Marlins). He has gone 13 and 2/3 innings, allowed just eight hits and struck out 19 in those outings. He has been better on the road this season with a 3.48 ERA compared to 4.03 at home. In his career against the Marlins, he is 10-4 with a 2.46 ERA and 150 strikeouts in 135 and 1/3 innings.
Miami Marlins
Last night's loss dropped the Marlins to 4-12 since the All-Star break. The Marlins haven't exactly lit the scoreboards up this season, but they have really struggled offensively of late. In their last 16 games, they are averaging just 3.3 runs per game.
That led the Marlins to add a pair of bats from the AL Central in Jake Burger and Josh Bell. Those two have 36 home runs combined, 25 coming from Burger.
It is unclear if their new additions will be in the lineup for today's game, but Luis Arraez will be. Arraez has slowed down a bit in the chase for .400 this season, but he is still hitting .381 and holds a substantial lead for the NL batting title.
Shutting down the Marlins starts with keeping Arraez off base, and the Phillies are equipped to do so in this matchup. Arraez is just 1-for-6 in his career against Wheeler. Many of his teammates do not have good numbers against him either. One exception is Jorge Soler, who is 4-for-11 with two runs batted in against Wheeler.
The Marlins may need a shutdown outing from Braxton Garrett in this one. Garrett has 117 strikeouts against just 17 walks in 106 innings. He is among the best in the league in walk rate. However, the flip side to that is he gives up a lot of hard contact.
Garrett ranks in the fifth percentile in Hard Hit Percentage and the ninth percentile in Average Exit Velocity. He also ranks in the 20th percentile or worse in xBA and xSLG.
Garrett has a 4.08 ERA and 4.61 xERA this season. However, he has been much better on the road this season and has a 5.40 ERA at home. The Phillies will look to take advantage.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Pick
The first two games of this series have seen just 10 runs scored. Tonight's total (7) is juiced to the over at -125, but I lean toward the under with Wheeler on the mound. However, if Garrett struggles again at home, there will likely be eight runs scored.
This leads me to backing the Phillies. They have the better offense, better starting pitcher, and the better bullpen in this matchup. Additionally, Wheeler's road splits and Garrett's home splits favor the Phillies.
The Phillies have won three of the five road meetings against the Marlins this season. The Marlins have scored three or fewer runs in five of eight matchups against the Phillies, including in one of Wheeler's starts.
I expect him to shut the Marlins down again and lead the Phillies to a victory.
Pick: Phillies ML -134 |
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