Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -140 | 7.5 +105 / -125 | -1.5 +130 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +115 | 7.5 +105 / -125 | +1.5 -160 |
The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday in a battle between the two teams looking up at the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
The pitching matchup is a big-on-name, light-on-production showdown between Zack Wheeler and Sandy Alcantara — two pitchers whose ERAs are not where their teams would have hoped before the season.
However, both have gotten quite unlucky by most available metrics, and as such, they should seemingly be in for some positive regression.
The question then becomes: Are the books already baking this in to the Phillies vs. Braves series opener?
Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler possesses a 4.03 ERA that ranks in the bottom half of all qualified pitchers in 2023. However, if we go Fielding Independent Pitching, Wheeler has still been truly elite this season, with the second-best (!!) FIP and 15th-ranked xFIP in baseball. His xERA sits right between those two, nearly three-quarters of a run below his ERA.
The natural thought would then to be to look at the under. This is a pitcher who is due for positive regression, and while trying to catch the falling knife may not be a great idea in the NBA (shouts: Raheem Palmer), betting on regression in baseball is as tried and true an approach as you'll find.
Miami Marlins
The story is much the same for Sandy Alcantara. The reigning Cy Young winner has seen his ERA more than double this season, going from 2.28 to 4.93.
However, similar to Wheeler, he sports an xERA/FIP/xFIP slash line with numbers that all sit nearly a run lower than that ERA, suggesting that he too should be due for some positive regression.
Two pitchers due for positive regression, this must be an under spot, right?
This is where we need to re-frame the question to: What are we actually betting? Are we betting on positive regression from both pitchers? No, we're betting into a market that is fully aware that both pitchers are due for that positive regression — that's why the total sits at 7.5, despite two pitchers with ERAs over 4.00.
For comparison's sake, the matchup between the Rangers and Nationals is nearly equivalent by starter ERA, but the total is sitting at 10. Of course, there are stadium and weather considerations baked into that number, but the fact remains that bettors are not really sneaking up on the books with the idea that Wheeler and Alcantara are due for positive regression.
Now, the sharp market appears to agree, with the Action app showing sharp money (and big money) coming in on the under even still.
That being said, I think there's room to zag here.
Looking over Wheeler's and Alcantara's game logs, they've been due for this positive regression all season. Wheeler's ERA has been a full run higher than his FIP at nearly every step this season. Same with Alcantara.
Nonetheless, neither has seen his ERA actually come down at all in reality. Wheeler had a 4.02 ERA after his third start and has basically hovered there since. Alcantara took five starts to find his stabilization point, but his ERA hasn't moved more than a half run either way since.
Phillies vs. Marlins Betting Pick
There are a few ways to play this zag.
The most straightforward is a first-five-inning over. Bettors can get over 3.5 -124 at BetRivers or over 4 -105 at BetMGM.
It's at BetMGM that there's another play I like: First five innings over 6.5 +300. In quite literally each of their last starts, both pitchers went five innings and allowed four runs.
Neither of these offenses has been an absolute killer this season, but both pitchers have given up 4+ runs to the Nationals within the past two weeks, so it's highly feasible.
I also am fine with betting the full game over since the Phillies used their best bullpen arms yesterday, but I prefer the first five handily.
Pick: Phillies-Marlins F5 Over 3.5 (-122) |
