Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions | Saturday Expert Picks
| Arizona Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 +118 | 9 -130o / +110u | +222 |
| Philadelphia Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -140 | 9 -130o / +110u | -278 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and get into Phillies vs Diamondbacks predictions in our Saturday MLB betting preview for June 22.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds for Saturday have the Phillies as -278 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 9 (-130o / +110u) for the second game of this NLCS rematch at Citizens Bank Park. For my Phillies vs Diamondbacks prediction, I will be looking at a different market — I see value on Philadelphia's run line (-1.5).
Left-hander Tommy Henry takes the mound for Arizona, while Philly hands the ball to ace right-hander Zack Wheeler.
See how I think Phillies vs Diamondbacks will play out in my MLB betting preview below.
Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler continues to cement himself as one of the league's best pitchers. One of the betting favorites to win the NL Cy Young, the right-hander is 8-4 with a commanding 2.84 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 15 starts.
Unsurprisingly, Wheeler's underlying metrics suggest regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 82nd percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against Arizona, a team he is 8-3 against through 14 career meetings with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP.
Following Wheeler is one of the league's best bullpens. Philadelphia's relief pitching ranks in the top seven of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Meanwhile, this pitching staff should have no issue receiving plenty of run support. The Phillies also rank in the top seven of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Furthermore, this lineup boasts a .262 BA, .429 SLG and .336 wOBA through 47 combined career plate appearances against Henry.
Arizona Diamondbacks
It shouldn't be shocking that one of the best lineups in baseball has teed off against one of the league's worst pitchers. Henry possesses a fade-worthy 6.23 ERA and 1.70 WHIP through eight appearances on the mound this season.
His analytics are even worse, as the southpaw ranks in the eighth percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Not to keep hounding on this guy, but Henry has also struggled mightily against Philly, a team he sports a 8.79 ERA and 1.95 WHIP against across three career meetings.
Even if Henry somehow doesn't allow five or more runs once again, it's hard to trust the bullpen that follows him. Arizona's relief pitching ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Betting Pick & Prediction
The one thing the Diamondbacks can lean on is their strong lineup. However, that lineup still falls short of the Phillies in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
Meanwhile, the gap between these two starting pitchers is about as wide as it gets. Wheeler outranks Henry in wins, ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.
The same rings true for the bullpens, as the Phillies' relief staff paces the D-Backs' in ERA, FIP and xFIP. Add in home-field advantage for Philadelphia, and there is just a not single reason why the Phillies shouldn't win this game by multiple runs.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-105 at BetMGM | Play to -110)
