Phillies vs Braves Picks, Best Bets, Odds MLB Playoffs NLDS Game 2

The Phillies jumped out to an early lead in Game 1 of the National League Division Series and although the Braves fought back and made it a game late, Philadelphia was able to hold on and claim a 1-0 lead in the series.

The Braves won the NL East and are favored in Game 2, but our analysts are backing the Phillies. We have multiple best bets to tail for Wednesday's contest and they all back the Phillies in one way or another.

Here's a look at our best bets for Game 2 of the NLDS between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves.

MLB Odds & Picks

Phillies First 5 Moneyline

Odds via BetMGM

Sean Zerillo: Zack Wheeler (3.10 xERA, 3.06 xFIP, 3.19 SIERA) enters Wednesday's start on full rest after a dominant effort in Game 1 against the Cardinals (6 1/3 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K). He was equally dominant in three outings against the Braves this season (20 IP, 18 H, 6 R, 1 BB, 25 K).

Wheeler carries a career .668 OPS against Atlanta's current roster over 210 plate appearances and also boasts an elite 27.1% K-BB%, which is 5.8% better than his season average. However, 10 plate appearances and six strikeouts came against Braves' pitchers, so you can temper expectations slightly.

Meanwhile, Kyle Wright (3.89 xERA, 3.30 xFIP, 3.48 SIERA) had three more wins (21) than any other starting pitcher this season, but likely overachieved — to a slight degree — compared to his underlying metrics. He faced the Phillies three times during his breakout campaign (19 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 7 BB, 15 K).

Both offenses are better against left-handed pitching, but Atlanta featured the better offense against right-handed pitching over the entire season (108 vs. 102 wrC+) and after the trade deadline (112 vs. 109).

The Braves undoubtedly have the superior bullpen, particularly with David Robertson (3.05 xERA) injuring himself in the Wild Card round by jumping up and down (which you can add to the long list of weird baseball injuries). I model Atlanta's bullpen (3.03 Weighted ERA) just behind the Dodgers (2.97) and Guardians (2.94) and have the Phillies rated a half-run worse (3.53) in my projections.

Additionally, Atlanta is the superior defensive team, though, as I have mentioned, the Phillies improved their defensive rating substantially (-33, 25th in Defensive Runs Saved) as the season wore on. Edmundo Sosa (+5 in 42 games at Shortstop) has provided a massive lift up the middle.

I projected the Braves as -110 favorites (52.5% implied) for Wednesday and don't see value on either side of the moneyline at current odds. Philadelphia is closer to the value side, but I would need +120 (45.5% implied) or better to place that bet at a 2% edge compared to my number.

I do project the Phillies as a -101 favorite (50.3% implied) for the first five innings (F5), however, and would bet Wheeler's F5 moneyline down to +107 (48.3% implied) at a similar edge.

Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Odds via FanDuel

DJ James: Zack Wheeler and the Philadelphia Phillies face off with Kyle Wright and the Atlanta Braves once again on Tuesday after the Phillies nearly blew a significant lead in Game 1, but managed to hold on and take a 1-0 lead in the series.

Wheeler is definitely the better of these two pitchers, considering Wright’s inability to limit hard contact.

Wheeler particularly excels at racking up the strikeouts against the Braves. In three starts versus Atlanta this season, Wheeler struck out 25 hitters over 20 innings. Considering he has gone at least five innings in all but one start since the beginning of July, going over his total strikeout prop should be very much in play for this game.

Building off of that, Atlanta has not excelled in making contact against right-handers. Yes, the Braves hold a 114 wRC+ since August 1 against righties, but they also have struck out ~25% of the time, while walking 7.6% of the time. Their walk-to-strikeout ratio ranks 23rd in that window.

Wheeler ranks in the 74th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 83rd percentile in walk percentage. This is as favorable of a matchup as they come. Take his strikeout total over from 4.5 (-160) to 5.5 (-150).

Phillies First 5 Moneyline

Mike Ianniello: The Phillies jumped all over the Braves in Game 1 of this series, posting two runs in the first inning and piling on seven runs in the first five innings. They took a 1-0 series lead behind their No. 3 pitcher and will now turn to their ace in Game 2.

Zack Wheeler has been brilliant during his three seasons in Philadelphia. He's had a sub-three ERA in each season. This year, he posted a 2.82 ERA and a 12-7 record and is one of the best in the league at limiting hard contract.

He has been consistently dominant throughout the entire season and actually was better in the second half of the year. In Game 1 of the Wild Card series, Wheeler was outstanding for the Phillies, pitching into the seventh inning and allowing just two hits and no runs.

Kyle Wright entered the year with just 14 big league starts under his belt but had a great season for Atlanta, going 21-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 3.89 xERA. As good as he was all year, Philadelphia still has the advantage with the more consistent pitcher.

After a blistering start for Wright — he posted a 2.95 ERA prior to the All-Star break — he settled down a bit in the second half and had just a 3.58 ERA after the break. Over his final five starts of the season, Wright had a 5.26 ERA. He also ranks in the bottom 25% of the league in hard-hit rate allowed on the season.

As good as Wright can be, Philadelphia has the advantage on the mound in Game 2. Wheeler was dominant his first outing of the postseason and the Phillies lineup is playing with a ton of confidence after winning three straight playoff games.

We saw yesterday that things can get a little sketchy once we head to the bullpens, so I’ll just back Wheeler to get the Phillies out to an early lead again.
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