Phillies vs. Athletics Picks
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-260 | 10 -115o / -105u | -1.5 -130 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+215 | 10 -115o / -105u | +1.5 +108 |
After snapping the Phillies' three-game winning streak on Friday, the Athletics continued to trend in a positive direction on Saturday in what was ultimately a losing effort. Now, they'll look to finish off the first half on a high note with a third win in five games against a young, inexperienced pitcher.
In the wake of Zack Wheeler's back injury, Michael Mercado is ticketed for long relief on Sunday just a week after losing his spot in Philly's rotation. He'll look to rebound from a forgettable start against the Braves against an A's offense that is unseasonably hot at the moment opposite 22-year-old Joey Estes.
Can Mercado help deliver a fifth Phillies win in six games to head into the All-Star break with his head held high? Let's break down the best way to bet on Phillies vs. A's below.
Philadelphia Phillies
While there's no listed starter for the Phillies, the team is planning on rolling out an opener — reportedly Orion Kerkering — prior to handing the ball to Mercado for the bulk of the work.
The 25-year-old came out of nowhere this season to post a 1.71 ERA across 47 1/3 innings in Triple-A, doing a great job of racking up strikeouts and limiting home runs. Walks were an issue to begin the season, but it did seem that Mercado had turned a corner with just five walks across 15 2/3 innings in June prior to watching those issues flare back up in the big leagues.
It's been the walks that have ultimately been the weakest point for Mercado at the big-league level through his first two starts, though the three home runs he allowed to Atlanta were assuredly an outlier and a product of facing a red-hot offense. The hard news here is that the A's are hitting the ball very well right now, though they've lacked much around hitting .275.
The Phillies offense, meanwhile, seems to be back to normal with the return of Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. They rank 11th in wRC+ in the past week, posting adequate strikeout and walk rates, though they've lacked the otherworldly power they've flashed at their peak.
Oakland Athletics
Estes hasn't worked much at this level, either, but even in 67 innings across the past two seasons, I think we've got a very clear indication as to who this pitcher is.
The right-hander hates ground balls, more than perhaps any pitcher in the league. He's helped himself out by keeping walks to a minimum, but given his .261 Expected Batting Average (xBA) and boisterous .477 Expected Slugging (xSLG), it's hard to say he's done anything to earn a low walk rate — his opponents have simply had no choice but to swing at these incredibly attractive deliveries.
Estes continues to rely upon his four-seam fastball, but with a .321 xBA on the pitch over the last two months he's begun to throw it less and less. It lacks velocity and has been offered over the center of the plate, rarely coming in low in the zone, which should make you wide-eyed given the Phillies' fourth-place ranking in run value against fastballs.
I did note the way this A's offense has hit lately, sitting top-10 in wRC+ in the past seven days, and while their power numbers are rather middling, it's worth noting that this team continues to be one of the best at putting the ball in the air. Their home run-to-fly ball ratio is rather unassuming, but they'll be playing in a hitter's paradise in Philly.
Phillies vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
The total is very high here, and with good reason. Both of these offenses love to hit the ball in the air, and have plenty of firepower to get the ball into the seats.
The homers haven't come in bunches for either side, but Citizens Bank Park still gives us some of the best conditions in the league, sitting sixth in Park Factor for long balls over the past three seasons. With both arms yielding a large complement of fly balls, this should be a dangerous spot to believe in either arm.
Oakland's continued reluctance to make contact may throw a wrench into the plans here, but Mercado's still a ways away from being able to successfully capitalize on this matchup. Even if he's able to pitch somewhat well, I think Estes will do more than enough to get us over this number.
Pick: Over 10 (-110)
