The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, May 1. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MIAM and MLB.TV.
In this Friday night matchup, Zack Wheeler will take the mound for Philadelphia, while Miami counters with Eury Perez.
The Phillies are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+146) on the run line. The Marlins are +102 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-176) on the run line. The over/under sits at 8 total runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
- Phillies vs Marlins Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts
My Phillies vs Marlins best bet is on Philadelphia starting pitcher Zack Wheeler to go under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8 -105o / -115u | -120 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8 -105o / -115u | +102 |
- Phillies vs Marlins Moneyline: Phillies -120, Marlins +102
- Phillies vs Marlins Over/Under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Phillies vs Marlins Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+146), Marlins +1.5 (-176)
Phillies vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the "Payoff Pitch" podcast.
By Derek Carty
I don’t project a huge edge on this prop, but I think the projection misses the fact that Zack Wheeler is not the same Zack Wheeler he has been.
He had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery over the offseason, which is often a career-ending injury. While Wheeler is back on the mound, his stuff is simply not as effective.
While his expected strikeout rate was around 28% last season, it was 23% in his first start. His expected ERA sat at 3.66 last year, but it came in at 4.40 in his first start.
Phillies vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
Wheeler is also still being stretched out, which matters for a strikeout prop.
The Phillies have been doing so at a conservative rate thus far, as he threw only 84 pitches last time out. I'd expect another 90-95 here, but I don't think we'll see an old Wheeler game where he goes out and throws 110 pitches.
Add in the fact that Miami strikes out at a below-average rate — which definitely doesn't help Wheeler — and I like this under. I don't think the projection has a hold of who Wheeler is as a pitcher right now.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110 · bet365)
