The Miami Marlins host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 27, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NBCS-PH.
The Phillies are favored by -181 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +149 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction
- Phillies vs Marlins Pick: Phillies Under 4.5 Runs (-120)
My Phillies vs Marlins best bet is on Philadelphia to record under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Marlins Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 7.5 -114o / -105u | -181 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 7.5 -114o / -105u | +149 |
- Phillies vs Marlins moneyline: Phillies -181, Marlins +149
- Phillies vs Marlins over/under: 7.5 (-114o / -105u)
- Phillies vs Marlins spread: Phillies -1.5 (-108), Marlins +1.5 (-112)
Phillies vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | RHP Tyler Phillips (MIA) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-2 | W-L | 2-5 |
| 3.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.16/2.61 | ERA / xERA | 3.52/4.77 |
| 2.92/2.76 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56/4.69 |
| 25.0% | K-BB% | 6.4% |
| 46.0% | GB% | 46.5% |
| .241 | BABIP | .274 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 108 | Location+ | 98 |
Phillies vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
One of the hottest pitchers in the league (Zack Wheeler) taking on one of the coldest teams (12-game losing streak). It sets up nicely for the Phillies behind their ace.
Wheeler has 10, 14, 10, and nine strikeouts in his last four starts. He's up to a 25% K-BB% on the year with a 2.16 ERA. He's even in the Cy Young picture again (I think Jacob Misiorowski will take it with ease, but Wheeler is in the top three or four candidates right now).
I expected to see -200 on the Phillies. We have them at -181. So that's fine if you don't mind the juice on a moneyline. It does seem like a favorable price to me.
My projection on Wheeler is striking, though. I have him for just seven strikeouts. The Marlins make a lot of contact. Check out some of the strikeout rates vs. RHP from this Marlins lineup:
- Otto Lopez 14%
- Xavier Edwards 13%
- Liam Hicks 11%
- Javier Sanoja 8%
Overall, the lineup has a 20.8% K% for tonight. But the books must be projecting similarly to me, because Wheeler's K prop is set at 7.5 (-145 for the under). That's crazy stuff! I thought we'd get 8.5 here at least, but instead it's 7.5 with juice on the under! I thought that's where I was going to take this bet, but with that line – I can't go there.
Tyler Phillips is on the other side. He's been pretty bad under the hood (4.50 SIERA, 6.4% K-BB%). The one thing he can do is keep the ball on the ground (47% GB%, two homers given up all year at home). That is what you want to do as a right-handed arm staring down Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.
Phillies vs Marlins Pick, Betting Analysis
The Phillies take a park downgrade here going from Philly to Miami. So I think this game can come in pretty low scoring. But again – it's just a 7.5 O/U! My model projects this game for 8.4 runs.
I'm going to back Phillips and the Marlins bullpen a bit here. It's just not a great spot for a Phillies lineup that really hasn't been all that great this year.
Pick: Phillies Under 4.5 Runs (-120)
