The Phillies finally found some life at the plate on Tuesday night in a 6-2 win over Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, and now they'll look to build themselves back up one game at a time when they square off against Gavin Stone on Wednesday at Dodger Stadium.
Can Philly get another quality outing from young Tyler Phillips to claim a much-needed series win, or will it be the Dodgers — fueled by the return of Freddie Freeman — who gain some momentum going into the weekend?
Let's break down this series finale and get into my Phillies vs Dodgers prediction and preview — plus the latest MLB odds — for Wednesday night.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds & Prediction
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
+118 | 9 -110o / -110u | +1.5 -170 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line (Spread) |
-140 | 9 -110o / -110u | -1.5 +143 |
Projected Starting Pitchers for Phillies at Dodgers
| RHP Tyler Phillips (PHI) | Stat | RHP Gavin Stone (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | W-L | 9-5 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 4.39/4.64 | ERA /xERA | 3.63/3.99 |
| 5.16/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 3.98/4.20 |
| 1.01 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 14.7% | K-BB% | 11.9% |
| 39% | GB% | 43.4% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 100 | Location+ | 103 |
Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers Preview
Phillies Betting Preview: What to Make of Tyler Phillips?
With their rotation in a state of flux after injuries to Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull, it appeared the Phillies found something in Tyler Phillips. The 26-year-old rookie stepped in for Michael Mercado, another first-year arm who failed to pitch effectively at the big-league level, and capped off a stellar month of July with a complete game shutout of the Guardians to begin his career with a 1.80 ERA in four starts.
Well, that all came tumbling down in puzzling fashion over the weekend when Phillips was lit up by the Mariners of all teams in Seattle. He looked a lot like Mercado, walking three batters in just 1 2/3 innings and allowing three home runs in one of the unfriendliest environments for longballs in the game.
That leaves us with a lot to figure out here. Phillips seemed due for some regression in the walks department after struggling in that area over the last two years down on the farm, and with a 14.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio this year at Triple-A the gopher balls certainly aren't overly surprising. Phillips has exhibited an excellent ability to produce ground balls across all levels, but against a Mariners team tailored towards fly balls, his ground-ball rate came crashing down to just 22.2% in his most recent start.
The right-hander will need to get back to what he does best if he wants to stick around in this rotation when the rehabbing Walker is healthy, and his sinker will need to be much more effective. The good news is that the Expected Batting Average (xBA) on that pitch had been trending down with each start prior to Friday's clunker, and Phillies fans will be hoping that was simply an isolated incident.
We'd be remiss if we didn't touch on this slumping Phillies offense, which collected 14 hits on Tuesday and eight on Monday as they begin to slowly pick things up at the dish. We know this team can hit for power, as they've continued to do that even amidst a terrible slump, but getting the ball back in play with more consistency and racking up hits isn't something we've seen for the better part of a month.
Dodgers Betting Preview: Freddie Freeman Sparks Offense
The Dodgers will counter with another rookie right-hander in the form of Gavin Stone, a man who started the season in the strongest form imaginable and has since hit a bit of a wall. He stumbled to a 6.27 ERA across four starts last month and yielded five runs on eight hits last go around in Oakland with some troubling trends developing.
Stone has allowed a home run in each of his last five starts, and has been taken deep twice in each of his last two. His strikeout numbers took a huge dive in July, which isn't the gravest concern considering he's largely pitched to contact this year, but that certainly didn't help him as opponents have begun to square him up better as the year has worn on.
The righty still profiles as a ground-ball arm — one of the few things that has remained consistent this season — but his hard-hit rate has risen in each of the last four months and reached 40% in that outing against the A's. This can best be chalked up to worsening results on his changeup, which is the pitch he throws most, and his sinker has also allowed more and more expected hits as he continues to pound the zone hoping for outs on batted balls.
The story here for L.A., however, lies on offense. This is a team already playing without Mookie Betts and some key pieces around the diamond — like Max Muncy and Miguel Rojas — and lost Freddie Freeman a couple of weeks ago as he left to tend to a family emergency. We saw a deflated team in the week to follow, but Freeman's return seems to have buoyed this team a bit in this series and lifted it to an instant win on Monday.
Kenny Ducey's Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Neither one of these arms has been excellent in the strikeout department which should aid both offenses in their quest to regain confidence at the plate. L.A.'s dealt with an unusually high 28.3% strikeout rate over the last two weeks which hasn't been made much better by a .153 Isolated Power and low .230 average — and over the last week it's even lost its ability to take walks — one of the things it always has going for it.
Through it all, though, the Dodgers remain a team which has put the ball in the air at one of the highest clips in baseball which should make life difficult on Phillips, who's desperate to find his ground-balling ways again. The Dodgers own the third-best OPS in baseball at .801 against ground-ball arms and are just 11th to fly-ballers which should set up a good matchup.
Philly's been similarly better against ground-ball arms with a sixth-ranked .746 OPS in the split and should welcome the matchup with Stone who's been struggling mightily to find outs on contact and limit power. On top of it all, he'll now have to face a Phillies team ranked third in run value to sinkers this year and one which has risen to 11th against changeups over the last 30 days.
We should see both sides continue to build their way back up at the plate in a what's a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 9 (-106 at FanDuel)
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Moneyline
There was some initial interest in the Phillies, with L.A. opening up at -142 on the moneyline before a steep, sudden move pushed them up to -135. The line has steadily crept back to the opening number with 77% of the bets and 99% of the money we're tracking heading towards the home favorites.
We're also reporting some sharp action and big money hitting the Dodgers.
Run Line (Spread)
It's always hard to cover the run line at home, but it hasn't seemed to be a huge issue for the Dodgers. They rank sixth in baseball with a 46.3% cover rate in these spots and are 27-20 to the run line after a loss this year. L.A. has also hit the run line in five of its last six wins.
Over/Under
With all the love for the Dodgers from the betting public, it's no surprise that bettors are expecting fireworks like I am. A firm 98% of the bets and 99% of the money we've tracked are coming in on the Over, but there's been sharp action on the Under.
Despite that, the line opened up at 8.5 runs and quickly jumped to nine with some steady movement toward the Over.
The total has gone Over in three of the last five games that each of these two teams have played, and it has gone 31-22-1 this season when the Dodgers are favorites at home.
