The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Philadelphia Phillies on September 16, 2025. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on TBS.
Find my MLB betting preview and Phillies vs Dodgers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction
- Phillies vs Dodgers picks: Over 7.5 (-105) | Play to -116
My Phillies vs Dodgers best bet is on the Over. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Dodgers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +160 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Phillies vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | Stat | RHP Shohei Ohtani (LAD) |
|---|---|---|
| 13-5 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 5.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.4 |
| 2.57/3.09 | ERA /xERA | 3.75/2.47 |
| 2.56/2.82 | FIP / xFIP | 2.17/2.54 |
| 1.11 | WHIP | 1.19 |
| 20.2% | K-BB% | 27.3% |
| 58.3% | GB% | 41.3% |
| 114 | Stuff+ | 120 |
| 100 | Location+ | 97 |
Kenny Ducey’s Phillies vs Dodgers Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Stellar Sanchez Hitting a Wall
It's been a stellar season for Cristopher Sanchez, but he may be hitting a bit of a wall as we come down the stretch. After a tough month where he saw his Expected Batting Average rise to .245, leading to a pedestrian 3.03 ERA, his expected numbers have taken another jump up in September, with his xSLG checking in at a poor .389.
Sanchez has been able to maintain some strong whiff rates, but after another strong performance in the strikeout department last month, he's punched out fewer than 23% of the batters he's faced in September. L.A. isn't a team that will go down on strikes too often, and it possesses some red-hot power bats, making it a tough assignment for the All-Star.
At the plate, the last two weeks have been kind to Philly — which leads the league in wRC+ and has married a .227 Isolated Power with a low-enough 22.9% strikeout rate. That's still the Achilles heel of this team, and over that same span, the bullpen has also been one of the worst in baseball, but this team's ability to do damage on contact right now is undeniable.
Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Improved Offense Will Help Ohtani
The Dodgers' offense has turned things around in short order, slugging some huge home runs in Monday's loss after putting up 24 runs in San Francisco over the weekend. They're running a brilliant 18.9% strikeout rate in the last two weeks with a .179 ISO, but in the last seven days, they're at 16% with a .214 ISO.
That should make life easy on Shohei Ohtani, who will be making his first start in 11 days. He's hardly gotten his season going, amassing just 36 innings as he's rehabbed his way back from Tommy John surgery. When he was finally stretched back out as a starter in August, he posted a 5.71 ERA and finished the fifth inning just one time.
Ohtani's strikeout and walk numbers remain elite, and batters haven't been able to square him up with a .217 xBA and .322 xSLG pointing to some positive regression. He's yet to establish a large enough sample to make any rash judgments, and he's also allowed just three homers with a 1.19 WHIP. It's entirely possible it's just bad luck, or it could be that the fly-balling Ohtani has been victimized by his outfield — which ranks 19th in Outs Above Average this year and has made the third-most errors in baseball. They did have a much better August, however, so perhaps there's room for Ohtani to grow.
Phillies vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
Both of these teams are hitting over .310 in the last week of play with menacing power numbers, and while both starters carry a ton of promise in terms of name value there's certainly some hope beneath the surface.
The Phillies have been significantly better against fly-ball pitchers, and have a ridiculous 21.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio in the last two weeks to lead the league. The Dodgers, meanwhile, lead the league in OPS to ground-ballers yet again and will meet one who's experiencing some turbulence at the moment in Sanchez.
Sure, Ohtani's pitched better than his results, but it doesn't preclude him from surrendering a few big blows against this incredible offense. The Phillies also just tore through their best relievers to complete an extra-innings win on Monday, and are already in a tough spot with the 'pen coughing up a ton of runs lately.
There's just so much to like about both offenses, and enough reason to believe both pitchers could be made uncomfortable here. I'll go with the Over yet again.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) | Play to -116
Moneyline
I'm making no moves on the Moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no bets on the Spread.
Over/Under
I'm taking Over 7.5 for this matchup.
Phillies vs Dodgers Betting Trends
