The Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, July 9. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on CINR and MLB.TV.
The Phillies are favored by -160 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +135 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Reds Prediction, Picks
- Phillies vs Reds Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115)
My Phillies vs Reds best bet is on Jesus Luzardo to record eight or more strikeouts in this game. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Reds Odds, Betting Line, Over/Under
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 9.5 -101o / -119u | -168 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -114 | 9.5 -101o / -119u | +139 |
- Phillies vs Reds Moneyline: Phillies ML -168, Reds ML +139
- Phillies vs Reds Over/Under: 9.5 Total Runs
- Phillies vs Reds Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (-105), Reds +1.5 (-114)
Phillies vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| Jesus Luzardo (LHP, PHI) | Stat | Brady Singer (RHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-4 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.0 |
| 3.75 / 3.07 | ERA / xERA | 5.03 / 5.56 |
| 2.97 / 2.98 | FIP / xFIP | 5.86 / 4.59 |
| 21.1 | K-BB% | 11.0 |
| 49.8 | GB% | 41.9 |
| .337 | BABIP | .312 |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 104 | Location+ | 97 |
Phillies vs Reds Pick, MLB Best Bet
Phillies SP Jesus Luzardo has racked up at least eight strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has had a single-digit SwStr% in just one start this year.
He also doesn’t have much of a split, striking out batters from either side of the plate at least 27.9% of the time this year.
Averaging a bit over 24 batters faced per start this year and 25 over his last five starts, the more contact-prone batters are likely to reside in the bottom third of the Reds order, with the first 25 he’d be likely to face averaging a 25.3 K% against LHP this year.
Luzardo only gets a 3-4% environmental bump (park, umpire, weather), but with his stuff in this matchup, I have him striking out about one-third of the batters he faces on average, which gives us room to spare at the price of 7.5.
Pick: Jesus Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts +115 (0.5 Units · Play to +100)
