The Boston Red Sox (17-24) host the Philadelphia Phillies (20-22) on Wednesday, May 13. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN and MLB.TV.
The Red Sox are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 (+142) on the run line. The Phillies are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 (-172) on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs (-105 / -115).
Find our MLB picks and Phillies vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Red Sox Predictions, Pick
- Phillies vs Red Sox Pick: Under 9 (-115)
Our Phillies vs Red Sox best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Red Sox Odds, Spread, Line
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 9 -105o / -115u | +114 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 9 -105o / -115u | -134 |
- Phillies vs Red Sox Moneyline: Phillies ML +114, Red Sox ML -134
- Phillies vs Red Sox Over/Under: 9 (-105 / -115)
- Phillies vs Red Sox Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+142), Phillies +1.5 (-172)
Phillies vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| RHP Andrew Painter (PHI) | Stat | RHP Sonny Gray (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 6.89/5.00 | ERA / xERA | 3.54/5.46 |
| 4.86/4.33 | FIP / xFIP | 4.30/4.56 |
| 11.8% | K-BB% | 6.7% |
| 37.6% | GB% | 49.0% |
| .365 | BABIP | .280 |
| 99 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 103 | Location+ | 98 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Expert MLB Picks
The Philadelphia Phillies enter the second matchup of this three-game series at Fenway Park with a significant head of steam. Following a narrow 2-1 victory in the opener, Philadelphia has now secured wins in six of their last eight contests.
This recent surge has coincided with the arrival of Don Mattingly, who took the reins on April 28 and has since led the club to an impressive 11-3 record, including his milestone 900th career managerial win on Tuesday.
A major catalyst for this momentum is Kyle Schwarber, who is currently locked into a historic groove. By launching his league-leading 17th home run in the series opener, Schwarber tied a franchise record with homers in five consecutive games.
The Phillies have found their identity through the long ball, boasting a 10-5 record when they clear the fences at least twice.
On the other side, the Boston Red Sox are looking to stabilize a season that has seen them slip to 17-24 overall.
Their primary challenge has been defending the perimeter of the ballpark, as they hold a dismal 6-19 record in games where they surrender at least one home run. For Wednesday’s clash, the pitching matchup features a contrast in experience and current form.
The Phillies will hand the ball to young right-hander Andrew Painter, who is searching for consistency with a 1-4 record and a 6.89 ERA.
He faces a seasoned veteran in Sonny Gray, who has been a reliable anchor for the Red Sox rotation. Gray carries a 3-54 ERA and brings a career-long mastery over National League opponents, holding interleague hitters to a meager .219 batting average across 57 career appearances.
How To Bet My Phillies vs Red Sox Pick & Best Bet
The strategic play for this matchup centers on the Under 9 total, largely supported by the "Series Unders: Off Low-Scoring Games" system developed by Evan Abrams.
This model identifies a specific situational rhythm where teams entering the second or later game of a series after a low-output performance tend to remain in an offensive slump.
After the Phillies and Red Sox combined for just three runs on Tuesday, the market often expects a rebound, but history suggests that stagnation frequently persists in the mid-series window.
While Schwarber is hitting everything in sight, the Red Sox offense has struggled to find a rhythm at home, where they are just 7-13 this season.
Sonny Gray’s historical efficiency against interleague lineups provides a sturdy floor for this total, as his ability to limit baserunners should keep the Phillies' power hitters from finding multi-run opportunities.
Furthermore, the situational data from the Abrams system indicates that when teams come off a low-scoring streak, the defensive focus and pitching execution often outpace the offensive adjustments.
Despite Andrew Painter’s elevated ERA, the Phillies’ bullpen has tightened up significantly under Mattingly’s leadership.
Given the recent history of these two squads and the trend of offensive regression following a 2-1 result, betting on a controlled, low-scoring environment is the most analytical move.
Back the Under 9 as these two teams continue their defensive grind in Boston.
Pick: Under 9 (-115)
