With a full 15 games on the slate, our MLB betting experts had plenty of MLB odds to sift through as they looked to make their Tuesday best bets. Those bets were discussed on the "Payoff Pitch" podcast and are further detailed below. So, be sure to continue reading and listen to the latest episode of "Payoff Pitch" if you want all of tonight's MLB best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | Over 8.5 |
  | 9:40 p.m. | Under 7.5 |
Over 8.5 vs. Royals
6:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
I would make this total at least nine.
Progressive Field, home of the Guardians, has seen a monster boost in park factor year-over-year. This season, it has the second-highest double factor and third-highest home run factor. Cleveland is a hitter's paradise right now and the Guardians face a Royals' defense that's due for major regression. The Royals the worst bullpen in baseball by xFIP and stuff+ by considerable margins.
Seth Lugo has had a heck of a season and is experiencing a renaissance as a starting pitcher after being in the bullpen for a while. He has a 1.7 ERA, but an xERA around 4.00 and a Stuff+ profile that is down. We could see some serious home run regression in this park against a Cleveland team that has posted a 116 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks.
Triston McKenzie is due for some regression and has a historic home run problem. His velocity is down two ticks since last season and he throws his four-seamer with zero success. He is struggling with command with his slider and faces a streaky lineup that can hit the ball hard. Over 8.5 runs seems too low to me and there are still some +100s available in the market.
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Under 7.5 vs. Mariners
9:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
This is a decent matchup for George Kirby, who likes to throw fastballs up in the zone, which the A's struggle to hit.
Mitch Spence is on the mound for Oakland and has been really good this season. In 14 appearances, three as a starter, he has one of the better sliders in baseball with a 123 Stuff+ and a horizontal break of almost 18 inches. His other pitch, a cutter, has been super effective as well.
I think this line is a bit too high for two teams with great bullpens that are each team coming in after a day off. I predicted this at 7.1 runs in Oakland, which is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks. So, I like Under 7.5 at even money.
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