The Payoff Pitch Podcast is back for another episode with a few Monday Best Bets.
So, listen to today's episode and enjoy the picks.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:07 p.m. | Under 8.5 |
  | 6:45 p.m. | Mets ML (-110) |
Astros at Blue Jays Under 8.5 (+100)
3:07 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Hunter Brown for the Astros is a big-time positive regression candidate.
His xERA is about a full run lower than his actual ERA. He has incredible Stuff+ numbers, and all his pitches allow under .300 xBA.
He is a tad bit reliant on his fastball, and unfortunately, that is the only pitch the Blue Jays hit well, so you could make a case for Toronto.
Toronto is starting a relief pitcher, and I don't expect him to pitch deep into the game. However, if they make this a bullpen game, which it appears to be, I project the Blue Jays as slight favorites.
But instead of taking them, I'd feel safer betting under 8.5 runs at -110. I have this projected at 7.8.
|  |
Mets ML (-110) at Nationals
6:45 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
Many are in love with Washington's MacKenzie Gore, and for good reason.
He's got some of the best Stuff+ ratings in baseball, a 3.8 xERA, outstanding pitching this season, and only a few weaknesses.
He runs into a Mets team that has turned their season around. They rank first in baseball for xBA against left-handed fastballs, a pitch that Gore throws that pitch about 54% of the time.
David Peterson is on for the Mets with an xERA around 6. But, he's only had five starts up to this point. He's a league-average pitcher with two good pitches and a below-average fastball.
He will face a Nationals lineup with the third-lowest in WRC+ against lefties.
The Mets will have all of their relievers left, and I have them projected at -132 in this matchup, so I like them at -110.
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