The "Payoff Pitch" podcast is back for another episode and that means there are more MLB best bets. There are nine games on MLB's Monday slate, but our MLB betting experts have focused on two games and two bets — a moneyline and a player prop.
So, be sure to listen to the latest episode below and keep reading for today's "Payoff Pitch" best bets.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:07 p.m. | Blue Jays Moneyline (-135) |
  | 8:40 p.m. | James Paxton Under 15.5 Outs |
Blue Jays Moneyline (-135) vs. Red Sox
7:07 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
By Sean Zerillo
Toronto has the rest and travel advantage after Boston had to travel to Canada last night.
I have Nick Pivetta and Yusei Kikuchi rated about even and projected the Blue Jays up to -150. Pivetta has a 138 Stuff+, which is the highest number in baseball among starting pitchers. He has been slipping in his past few outings and his slider velocity was the lowest its been all season in his most recent start.
Kikuchi has a 3.4 xERA with a 110 Stuff+, but got up to 128 Stuff+ in his most recent start. Both pitchers are similar, as are the batting splits for each team. This comes down to the Jays playing at home with both a travel and rest advantage. Toronto also has the better defense. I like Toronto in both halves here, so whatever line is better, I would take up to -150.
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James Paxton Under 15.5 Outs at Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET ⋅ MLB.TV
It is "fade James Paxton" day for all who celebrate.
Paxton has been able to avoid regression over his past few starts despite having a 13% strikeout rate with a near 13% walk rate. He can't overpower the opposition and has benefitted from opponents having a .251 batting average on balls in play. This Rockies team, shockingly, is in the top half of the league against left-handed pitching when it comes to wRC+.
I think this is a great play on the Rockies, without actually having to bet on them and risk the bullpen blowing the game.
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