Padres vs. Pirates Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -200 | 9 -102 / -120 | -1.5 -118 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+168 | 9 -102 / -120 | +1.5 +102 |
Joe Musgrove is finally getting the results he deserves, and he will probably continue in that trajectory as he faces one of the worst offenses in baseball of late: the Pittsburgh Pirates.
The Pirates started off hot in the National League Central, but that quickly fell apart with bullpen regression, as they have not really hit too since that torrid start.
The Bucs pitch one of their top prospect on Thursday in Luis L. Ortiz, who has a plus-fastball but has put up results thus far superior to his expected figures.
With two teams and starting pitchers seemingly heading in opposite directions, let's break down the best way to bet this Thursday matinee.
San Diego Padres
Musgrove owns a 3.88 ERA, but his 3.11 xERA jumps off of the page. It's an elite number, and as such Musgrove should see better results moving forward.
Musgrove's average exit velocity allowed sits at 86.1 mph, which is in line with his past successful seasons. His hard hit percentage allowed, however, is now below 29%, a career-best.
Musgrove isn't allowing a ton of hard contact, is the bottom line, and he should find better results going forward given those trends. He's also only walking 5.8 percent of batters, so shouldn't have much trouble with the slumping Pirates.
As for the Padres offensively, well, they can hit.
The Padres have a 106 wRC+ with a 9.9% walk rate and 21.3% strikeout rate off of right-handed pitching in June. On the season, they have five batters with a .320+ xwOBA when facing righties. In June, that number has risen to six hitters with a few others above .310.
Juan Soto muscles one out the other way for his 12th home run! pic.twitter.com/dduXAwHgz8
— MLB (@MLB) June 20, 2023
In relief, San Diego has been better in June, too. They have a 3.98 xFIP and five active arms below the 4.00 mark in June. This should be enough with Musgrove typically pitching deep into games.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Ortiz probably has a future in the Bucs’ rotation, but he has been lucky to put up the numbers he has thus far in his young career.
His hard hit percentage ranks in the 13th percentile, while his average exit velocity allowed ranks in the 9th percentile.
His strikeout rate is also below 16%, while his walk rate is nearly 11%. This is not a recipe for success and is yet another ingredient into his xERA being so high.
On the other side of the ball, well, the Pirates can’t hit.
Ji Man Choi, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz being on the injured list is just a starting point. In June and against right-handed pitching, they have three active hitters above a .320 xwOBA. They own a 73 wRC+ with a .627 OPS, only above the New York Yankees in the majors during that time frame.
Outside of Jack Suwinski, Andrew McCutchen and Josh Palacios, this lineup has been pretty bad lately.
The relievers for the Bucs have also fallen off significantly. They have the worst June xFIP in baseball at 5.52 and are only stranding 64.5% of baserunner.
Roansy Contreras and Angel Perdomo are the only two bullpen arms below a 4.00 xFIP, so since Ortiz has a tendency to accrue pitches, the Padres will push across a few runs in the later innings of the ballgame.
Padres vs. Pirates Betting Pick
Ortiz and Musgrove are on the opposite side of the luck coin. Musgrove is finally getting his due, and this could be where Ortiz begins to fall apart.
San Diego’s bats are heating up, now that much of the lineup is healthy, and with the moneyline being steep, backing the Padres team total is a good bet.
Take the Padres at 5 and play them to -135.
Pick: Padres Over 5 Runs |
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