Padres vs. Phillies Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+155 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -130 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-185 | 9.5 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +110 |
A three-game set between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies starts on Monday.
Both are playoff contenders in the National League, with the Phillies (47-24) currently holding the top overall seed in the NL and an eight-game lead in the NL East.
Meanwhile, the Padres face an eight-game deficit to the Dodgers in the NL West but are clinging to the last wild card spot.
The Phillies are heavy favorites tonight at -185 on the moneyline with an over/under in this matchup of 9.5 runs (-105/-115).
Find my Padres vs Phillies predictions for Monday, June 17, below.
San Diego Padres
Randy Vasquez will get the start for the Padres tonight.
Vasquez has spent part of this season in AAA after being acquired from the Yankees in the Juan Soto deal but has been back up in the Majors since the beginning of June.
Through eight starts, Vasquez has a 4.93 ERA and 5.95 xERA. He's struck out just 26 batters across 38 1/3 innings. Among qualified pitchers, Vasquez ranks in the ninth percentile in strikeout rate and 19th percentile in whiff rate.
The main area that he has succeeded in is his command, where he has allowed a 4.1% walk rate, ranking in the 93rd percentile.
With the lack of strikeout production this season, I was surprised to see that Vasquez’s Stuff+ numbers are actually strong. Out of 155 starting pitchers, he ranks 32nd in Stuff+ with a 108 mark. His strikeout rates across the rest of his career have been better as well, so I would expect that we may see this tick up a bit going forward.
The Padres’ offense has been their main strength this season. They rank fourth in wRC+ and eighth in wOBA. Part of the reason for their success has been the amount of balls they put in play, as they boast the second-lowest strikeout rate.
San Diego’s offense doesn’t look quite as good when looking at the batted ball metrics. They rank 21st in barrel rate, 18th in hard-hit rate, and 11th in average exit velocity. For this reason, they are fourth in xwOBA but 11th in xwOBACON.
They'll face off against a left-hander on Monday, and they've struggled against that side. They rank 18th in wRC+ and 22nd in wOBA against southpaws. They still have a low strikeout rate from this side of the platoon, but are 21st in ISO and dead last in BABIP.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies’ offense ranks seventh in wRC+ this season and fifth in wOBA. They've been among the better offenses in the National League, which has powered them to their outstanding record. They also rank fourth in OBP, seventh in SLG, ninth in ISO, and fourth in BABIP. They strike out at around a league-average rate and have the third-highest walk rate in baseball this season.
The Statcast data has been more mixed. Philadelphia ranks sixth in hard hit rate but 16th in average exit velocity and 13th in barrel rate. They also hit ground balls at the eighth-highest rate. Despite this, they still rank fifth in both xwOBA and xwOBACON.
Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for Philadelphia. He's in his second season in the rotation for this team and has a career-best 3.07 ERA to this point. He pairs that with a 3.83 xERA and 3.50 SIERA.
His 2.7% HR/FB ratio is largely unsustainable, as it is the lowest in the Majors for anyone with 70-plus innings and well below his career average of 15.2%. Among qualified pitchers, he ranks in the 76th percentile in barrel rate allowed but in the 42nd percentile in hard hit rate allowed. Additionally, Sanchez’s ground ball rate of 60.6% ranks in the 96th percentile.
Among 73 pitchers with 70-plus innings, the lefty ranks 48th in Stuff+. He also ranks 52nd in Location+ and 29th in Pitching+.
Padres vs. Phillies
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Padres have struggled to hit southpaws, and while I don’t think Sanchez is a great pitcher, San Diego might struggle to overcome its own flaws. The Padres' batted-ball metrics don’t back up their production.
On the other side, Vasquez has had a tough start to the season, but I think the strikeouts will come for him at some point. However, he still is allowing quality contact against a team that has hit the ball well to this point in the season.
Both of these bullpens have been at least above average this season, with both ranking top ten in xFIP.
That said, I think the current total of 9.5 for this game is too high, as these offenses are being overvalued in this matchup compared to these starting pitchers. I think both starters can piece together a quality start, and this game could cruise well under the total.
Pick: Under 9.5 Total Runs (-115, bet365) | Bet to 9.5 (-120)
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