Padres vs Orioles Odds & Pick
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+160 | 9 -105 / -115 | +1.5 -122 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-192 | 9 -105 / -115 | -1.5 +102 |
After Dylan Cease's no-hitter delivered the Padres a fifth straight win on Thursday, San Diego will stay in the DMV as it begins a three-game weekend series against the Orioles on Friday.
Adam Mazur will have his work cut out for him, as he's making his first appearance after being sent down to the minor leagues two weeks ago due to a rough first seven outings at the big-league level.
He'll attempt to turn things around against a slumping Baltimore offense, which has experienced a power outage this month.
Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez will look to keep his season on the right track against a San Diego team that's remained productive at the plate.
Can Baltimore build off its dramatic win over the Marlins to post a winning streak and get some separation in the AL East?
Here's a Padres vs. Orioles pick, including MLB odds and predictions for Friday, July 26.
San Diego Padres
We'll begin with Mazur, whose issues appear to be tenfold at the moment. He wasn't someone who struggled with walks down in the minors. In fact, his command of the zone has always been elite, with a sub-5% walk rate across all three levels prior to his promotion earlier this year.
However, in his first starts in the major leagues, Mazur struggled to throw strikes and wound up walking 12.9% of the batters he faced.
Not only is the right-hander someone who doesn't rack up strikeouts, but as a fly ball-oriented pitcher, he's had some issues with allowing homers.
Mazur owns a troublesome 15.4% home-run-to-fly-ball ratio in his five Triple-A starts this season and is up at 10.9% in seven appearances with the big-league club.
He didn't wind up surrendering one in the lone start he made after his demotion, but he did allow five runs on seven hits and two walks across four innings to prove that nothing has really changed.
The rookie's .278 Expected Batting Average and .421 Expected Slugging (well worse than the league average) should play true here, and there's little evidence that we can trust him to get back to limiting walks.
Offensively, the Padres continue to be perplexing. Yes, they sit sixth in wRC+ for the month, but they continue to be an all-or-nothing side, with one 12-run explosion on Thursday sandwiched in between three games in which they posted a combined nine runs.
San Diego continues to be a team that's tailored towards the ground ball, limiting strikeouts brilliantly and hitting for average around little power and few walks.
Baltimore Orioles
Rodriguez is the owner of a very respectable 3.83 ERA across 18 starts, but his numbers really could be much better if he'd avoid the occasional nightmare outing.
He's put up six quality starts in his last nine turns, getting yanked when he was one out away from an eighth back in early June.
His numbers across the last two months are weighed down by two starts against the Astros and Yankees, in which he allowed a combined 13 runs in 10 innings.
And while I'm the first to say we can't simply ignore a pitcher's bad outings, it doesn't seem as if we can use his results as an overall predictor of his success level.
One thing that helped Rodriguez last season, as he experienced the normal dip in strikeouts that all young pitchers see when rising to the big-league level for the first time, is ground balls.
His rate of contact on the ground soared as the season went on, and in pitching to a 47.4% ground-ball rate in July, he's now brought that number up in each of the past three months.
That should be something worth watching here since the Padres — in a twist — have struggled to hit ground-ball pitchers. They're just .262/.314/.382 in that split, compared to .266/.333/.441 in the reverse.
That should rear its head given Rodriguez's strikeout numbers will likely take a dive against a team punching out just 18% of the time in July.
Speaking of punchies, the Orioles' strikeout rate is up a point to 22.3% this month. They've posted a stellar .198 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, but it's down to .156 in this span, which is a big deal considering hitting for average is not something the O's have been known for.
Padres vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
I don't think it's a novel concept to say that Mazur will struggle on Friday. He's been one of the worst starters in the league when he's been pitching at this level.
Camden Yards hasn't quite been the hitter's paradise we've come to know over the years after making some adjustments to the outfield, but the Orioles' Park Factor for home runs this year is towards the top 10.
A fly-ball arm like Mazur should be minced-meat against a team that loves to put the ball in the air and hit for power.
On the flip side, it's hard to see the Padres producing since they struggle against ground-ball pitchers. Yes, Rodriguez has hardly been one of those over the course of the season, but he's once again transforming his game as the season progresses.
Fading Mazur and a volatile Padres offense is the only way to play this one, and I'll lay the half-run with Baltimore at home over the first five innings.
Pick: Orioles First Five Innings -0.5 (-135)
