The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on Sunday, June 8, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Roku.
San Diego took the first game 2-0 on Friday, and Milwaukee answered yesterday with a 4-3 win. Rookie Ryan Bergert will make his second MLB career start for the Padres, while the Brewers will send ace Freddy Peralta to the mound in the final game of this series.
Find my Padres vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more for Sunday.
My Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers picks: Under 8 (-105)
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is Under 8 (-105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +132 | 8 -115o / -105u | +134 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -159 | 8 -115o / -105u | -160 |
Padres vs Brewers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Ryan Bergert (SD) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 2.00/4.09 | ERA /xERA | 2.92/3.66 |
| 4.62/5.58 | FIP / xFIP | 3.96/4.05 |
| 1.00 | WHIP | 1.21 |
| 5.7 | K-BB% | 15.4 |
| 32.1 | GB% | 37.6 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 97 | Location+ | 99 |
Padres vs Brewers Preview
The sample size regarding Ryan Bergert is minimal, but the San Diego rookie looked good on Tuesday in his first major league start.
In five innings, he limited the San Francisco Giants to two runs and six hits while walking two batters and striking out two.
His only mistake was giving up a two-run homer to Heliot Ramos in the third inning, and a late comeback from the Padres allowed him to get a no-decision instead of a loss.
His previous work for San Diego included four shutout relief appearances between April and May, which also supports his value in covering today's under.
Bergert has earned a shot at remaining with the team in the majors and will face a Brewers lineup producing below the league average against right-handed pitching with 94 wRC+.
He will oppose an established ace like Freddy Peralta, who improves today's chances of a low-scoring affair.
Peralta has allowed three runs in each of his last two starts, although those were against two respectable lineups: the Reds and Red Sox.
More troubling could be the walks, however, since he's been issuing three per start in his last three outings and four out of the previous five. Nevertheless, he will face a Padres team dipping in production, with 91 wRC+ since the start of May.
For this game, we will also rely on Bet Labs's Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams system, which favors our pick and has produced excellent results this season.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction, Betting Analysis
The final game of this Padres-Brewers series matches this Bet Labs system, which targets unders in MLB series games (Game 2 or later) where both teams have winning records, suggesting quality pitching and competitive matchups.
However, public betting leans toward the over ā likely expecting fireworks between top teams ā which creates contrarian value on the under.
By capitalizing on low public support for the under (ā¤35%), the strategy fades public perception in favor of market inefficiencies, especially when bettors overestimate offensive output late in a series.
Pick: Under 8 (-105, BetMGM)
