The stage is set for Sunday Night Baseball. After a rain delay spoiled this matchup yesterday, we get a standalone game between the San Diego Padres and Atlanta Braves.
Bryce Elder takes the mound for his birthday, looking to build off a decent performance against the Mets a week ago. Opposite him will be the veteran Yu Darvish, who has been much improved to start the season. But, these are two of the better offenses in baseball — so we may see some fireworks.
As we do weekly here, it's an island game on Sunday night, so you know it's time to have some fun with a same game parlay. I want to see some offense while enjoying the game in the process, so I broke down a pair of hitters who I think hold an advantage, plus a pick from our MLB expert Sean Zerillo.
If you want to take it a step further, pick your favorite to hit a home run. That'll really juice the odds on this parlay. Remember to bet responsibly — this is a long shot for a reason.
Here's my three-leg SGP for Padres vs. Braves tonight.
Padres vs. Braves Same Game Parlay (+900, bet365)
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
- Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Braves ML (-115)
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Let’s start things off real ugly. Manny Machado has been in a slump for most of May. In his last 10 games, he is 3-for-38. Neither of those three hits have gone for extra bases.
But Machado has been a bit unlucky through this slump. It’s not like he is striking out every game and putting in horrible plate appearances. Taking a look at his rolling hard-hit and fly ball graphs show that Machado is still hitting the ball hard. There’s just been minimal success.
The matchup also lends itself into a positive one for Machado. Bryce Elder takes the mound for Atlanta and he’s primarily a sinker-ball pitcher (46.6%). This season, he has a 125 wRC+ against the sinker and is hitting .340 with a 56.8 hard-hit rate.
Machado is still barreling the ball at the same rate as last year (10.5%), when he crushed 30 home runs. It’s only a matter of time given his underlying metrics that Machado finds the outfield seats — or at least a gap along the way.
Elder has his struggles on the mound and ranks in the bottom 10% of all pitchers in xBA and hard-hit rate. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses or chases — a plus against a hitter like Machado.
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Matt Olson is finally finding his stride here and I’m looking to back the lefty even if Austin Riley remains sidelined. The Braves have slid Marcell Ozuna in the three hole, giving Olson three of the best hitters in baseball in front of him and often are the bases littered with them.
Over the last 15 days, Olson is hitting .308 with a .487 slugging percentage. It’s only a matter of time before the power comes — two home runs in that span — and he positively regresses to the norm.
Last season Olson had 54 home runs. This? Just five in 41 games. Olson is hitting the ball hard and in the air, similarly to Machado, with minimal results.
Yu Darvish’s biggest struggle in the early going this season has been his rising hard-hit rate. He ranks in the bottom 12% of all pitchers in average exit velocity and has a career-worst 42% hard-hit rate.
Darvish’s underlying metrics look promising in his age 37 season, but the high hard-hit rate could lend itself to a blowup against a free-swinging and powerful Braves lineup. Olson is the guy I like to do some damage here, with extra-base power behind every swing.
Braves ML (-115)
The last leg of this same-game parlay comes via Sean Zerillo's projections. I was mixed between adding another total bases prop, but ultimately decided on following the expert here. This is Bryce Elder's birthday after all. The narrative is lining up after Saturday was postponed and Elder was given an extra day off.
Players like Fernando Tatis and Xander Bogaerts had their fair share of struggles against sinkers. Both bullpens are also fully rested, which gives Atlanta a huge advantage. The Braves are sixth in bullpen xFIP, while San Diego is down at 14th.
Darvish's concerning hard-hit rate could come back to haunt him here. Despite not having Austin Riley, the Braves offense has also been better than the Padres over the last two weeks. All tiny edges point in Atlanta's favor, as long as they can avoid an Elder implosion.
