Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+120 | 8 -118 / -104 | +1.5 -178 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 | 8 -118 / -104 | -1.5 +146 |
The opener of this AL East series ended with a 10th-inning walk-off RBI from Yankees rookie Anthony Volpe, the first of his career. New York is 3-1 against Baltimore on the year, yet still remains two games behind the Orioles in the standings.
The surging Yankees have won five straight and eight of their past 10. Both of these teams would be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but in the hardest division in baseball, with every team above .500, every game matters.
Baltimore Orioles
Tyler Wells has been the victim of bad luck throughout his first two seasons, but he's finally now getting the benefit of good fortune. Through his first nine games, he is 3-1 with 2.94 ERA. His 3.85 xERA is right in line with his first two seasons, but his ERA is a run and a half lower.
With a five-pitch mix, Wells can keep hitters guessing, and he throws all of his pitches for a negative run value. However, Wells has had trouble with the occasional mistake resulting in a homer.
It’s not often a No. 1 prospect is better than expected, but Adley Rutschman has already lived up to expectations and then some. He has a wRC+ over 134, which ranks second among all catchers, and is one of six Orioles hitters with a wRC+ over 120.
New York Yankees
After his 2022 All-Star appearance, Nestor Cortes has gotten off to a rocky start this season. He's followed up his 2.44 ERA from last year with a 5.21 ERA through nine starts. But digging into the numbers, it hasn’t truly been that drastic of a drop-off.
Cortes has an xERA nearly two runs lower (3.79), which indicates positive regression should be coming. Although his Hard-Hit% is the highest of his career, his xwOBA is up from the past two seasons and his strikeout rate is down.
It should come as no surprise that the Yankees’ hot streak has run parallel with Aaron Judge. Over the past two weeks, the reigning MVP is batting .382 with a 1.402 OPS and has eight home runs. He ranks second in the league in wRC+ and xwOBA.
Orioles vs. Yankees Betting Pick
On the surface, it is easy to see Wells has a 2.94 ERA and Cortes has a 5.21 ERA, which would seemingly give the pitching edge to Baltimore. However, Cortes actually has the better xERA and lower xwOBA and Har-Hit%. The two starters have the same strikeout rate and have already faced off before this year, with Cortes coming away victorious in a 5-3 Yankees win.
Meanwhile, at the plate, Judge has entered full MVP mode and is hitting the ball better than anybody in baseball right now. He's not the only one, either. Anthony Rizzo is also red hot and Harrison Bader has brought new excitement to this team since his return from injury.
Over the past two weeks, New York has the second-best wRC+ and wOBA in the league. The Yankees are averaging over six runs per game and lead the league in home runs over that stretch.
I am generally high on Wells as a pitcher, but the way Judge and the rest of the Yankees offense have looked recently, I just cannot bet against them. Judge is batting .471 with a .645 wOBA in his career against Wells and has three home runs.
I’ll back the Bronx Bombers and hope Cortes' positive regression makes the pitching matchup a wash.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline | Play to -145 |
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