Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+110 | 9 -110 / -110 | +1.5 -184 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -130 | 9 -110 / -110 | -1.5 -152 |
Things seem to be trending firmly in a positive direction for the Baltimore Orioles. Catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in last year's Rookie of the Year voting, and third basemen Gunnar Henderson enters this season as the American League Rookie of the Year favorite. In the second half of the 2022 season, Baltimore went 37-33, the fifth-best mark in the American League.
Boston, on the other hand, is seemingly trending down. During the offseason, the Red Sox lost shortstop Xander Bogaerts and DH J.D. Martinez, who ranked second and third on the team in wRC+ last year. Pitchers Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill, three of their top four starters from last year, are also gone.
But this is just one game. Let’s break down who has the advantage on Opening Day.
Baltimore Orioles
Kyle Gibson, 35, will get the ball to start the season.
Gibson struggled last season with Philadelphia, pitching to a 5.05 ERA over 31 starts, and finding himself in the bullpen during the Phillies' postseason run. While Gibson doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence, he is surprisingly the youngest arm in this game and Baltimore should have a deep bullpen this year.
Baltimore will be led by its young core on offense. Rutschman posted a 133 wRC+ in just 113 games last year and only got better as the season went on. He's a top-10 MVP favorite and probably the second-best catcher in baseball.
FanGraphs has Rutschman, Henderson, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander all projected for a WAR of at least 3.0.
Boston Red Sox
Corey Kluber, 36, will also be making his first start in a new uniform. Kluber went 10-10 with a 4.34 ERA for Tampa Bay last season and although he doesn’t have much strikeout upside at this point in his career, he still throws a ton of strikes and rarely issues walks.
Boston had a horrific bullpen in 2022, but really made some moves to improve that unit. Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen were brought in over the offseason and should get the last two innings of most games.
The losses of Bogaerts and Martinez in the batting order will need to be replaced by 38-year-old Justin Turner and Japanese standout Masataka Yoshida. Yoshida got Red Sox fans excited during the World Baseball Classic and if Boston is going to contend, he needs to have a monster year.
Rafael Devers continues to be one of the best hitters in baseball. He is a legitimate MVP candidate every year, but will he be able to carry this team by himself for an entire season?
Orioles vs. Red Sox Betting Pick
This might be the least exciting pitching matchup on the Opening Day slate — two veterans age 35 and up, both with an ERA over 4.30 last season and a projection over 4.50 this year.
I think this pitching mashup is largely a wash. I give the Red Sox a slight edge with Kluber, but I like the upside of the Orioles' bullpen with Felix Bautista. Baltimore’s relievers were seventh in xFIP last season and while Boston made some solid moves to try and improve, I need to see it first.
Kluber faced Baltimore six times last season with Tampa Bay, the most of any team. He went 1-3 with a 5.64 ERA in those outings. In his last three starts against the Orioles, he allowed 15 earned runs and at least four in each outing.
Throughout this season, I think we are going to find the Orioles and Red Sox to be extremely evenly matched teams. In fact, our own baseball expert, Sean Zerillo, has Baltimore projected at 78.5 wins and Boston at 78.3. If these lines were reversed, I’d probably lean toward the Red Sox but since the Orioles are the underdog and I am higher on them than I am on Boston, I’ll back the O’s to get things done on Opening Day.
Speaking of Opening Day, if you’re somebody who is into betting trends, the Orioles are 11-7 on Opening Day over the past 18 years — the third-most profitable team to bet on to start the season.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline |
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