Orioles vs. Marlins Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-275 | 7.5 -120/-102 | -1.5 -156 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+220 | 7.5 -120/-102 | +1.5 +130 |
Let's dive into the MLB odds and make an Orioles vs Marlinsprediction in our Thursday MLB betting preview for July 25.
Orioles vs. Marlins odds for Thursday are on the move as the Orioles are -275 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 7.5 for the series finale at loanDepot Park. However, for my Orioles vs. Marlins pick, I'll be looking at a different market. I see value on Baltimore's alternate run line (-2.5).
Right-hander Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Baltimore, while Miami hands the ball to right-hander Roddery Munoz.
See how I think Orioles vs. Marlins will play out in my Thursday MLB betting preview below.
Baltimore Orioles
Burnes continues to cement himself as one of the league's premier aces. He is 10-4 through 20 starts this season with a commanding 2.38 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are equally dominant as the right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in xERA, walk rate and hard-hit rate. That success is likely to continue against Miami as Burnes is 2-0 with an absurd 0.45 ERA over his past three meetings with the Marlins.
Following Burnes is one of the league's premier bullpens. Baltimore's relief pitching ranks in the top 12 of the league in ERA, FIP and xFIP.
This pitching staff is likely to receive plenty of run support as the Orioles rank in the top three of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, SLG, OPS and home runs.
Miami Marlins
Baltimore's success at the dish is likely to continue against Munoz. Through the first 11 appearances of his rookie campaign, the right-hander is 1-5 with a fade-worthy 5.14 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse as Munoz owns a 5.87 xERA and ranks in the 24th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Following Munoz is a bullpen that isn't bad, but still ranks south of the Orioles' in both ERA and xFIP.
Meanwhile, run support is going to be hard to come by. Miami ranks in the bottom 10 of the league in runs scored per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.
These woes at the dish are likely to continue against Burnes, who has held Miami's hitters to a .133 BA, a .178 SLG and a .158 wOBA through 47 combined career plate appearances.
Orioles vs. Marlins
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's not a single reason to like Miami in this contest.
Burnes outranks Munoz in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Additionally, Baltimore's bullpen outranks the Marlins' in both ERA and xFIP.
Finally, the Orioles outrank Miami in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.
So, what's the best way to bet the Orioles? I'd wager that we can confidently back Baltimore to cover -2.5.
Four of the Orioles' past six wins have come by at least three runs, while four of the Marlins' past six losses have come by at least that same margin.
Pick: Orioles -2.5 (+105 at BetMGM | Play to +100)
