Orioles vs Braves Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+138 | 9 -108 / -112 | +1.5 -146 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -164 | 9 -108 / -112 | -1.5 +122 |
To kick off Sunday's MLB slate, the NL East's Atlanta Braves host the AL East's Baltimore Orioles.
After splitting the first two games of this series, each of these teams look to claim the rubber-match on national television. Will Atlanta defend its home diamond, or can the Orioles pull off the upset on the road?
Here's a look at the odds, as well as my Orioles vs. Braves betting pick.
Baltimore Orioles
After a tremendous start to the campaign, the Baltimore Orioles currently sit in second-place in the AL East with a 22-11 record. The offense is the primary reason for this early success as Baltimore ranks in the top-eight in the MLB in runs, hits, BA, SLG and OPS.
Not only are the Orioles hitting well, but they are avoiding striking out, something that is likely to continue against right-hander Bryce Elder. This season, Baltimore ranks ninth in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
We saw this trend start to develop with this young roster in 2022 as the Orioles finished the campaign ranked in the top half of the league in K% against right-handers. Looking at Sunday's projected lineup, the punch-out is likely going to be difficult to come by once again as five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this year.
Atlanta Braves
Through six starts this season, Elder is 3-0 with a 1.75 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are tremendous, his underlying metrics suggest that massive regression is imminent.
Currently, Elder ranks in the 44th percentile or lower in xERA/xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, and HardHit%. If this expected regression hits in this contest, then it could be a short outing for the right-hander.
But, even if he gets away with another strong start, he should still be a good fade candidate in the strikeout market. Certainly not Elder's greatest strength, he ranks in the 47th percentile in K% this season.
Orioles vs. Braves Betting Pick
Although he only made 10 appearances on the mound in 2022, Elder finished last season with a 20.7 K%. Boasting a four-pitch arsenal, the one pitch that seems to work for Elder in the strikeout department is his 4-seam fastball, which owns a 31.4 Whiff% this year.
However, when guys are not whiffing on that pitch, they are likely sending out of the park as it possesses a .750 SLG, which is probably why he throws it only 12.2% of the time. This Orioles' lineup is legit, and with Elder's poor underlying metrics compared to his strong surface-level stats, it would not be shocking if this is the day that expected regression comes to fruition.
