The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Yankees on Wednesday, June 25, 2025. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Find my Yankees vs Reds prediction with odds for Wednesday night below.
My Yankees vs Reds Prediction
- Yankees vs Reds picks: Reds +1.5 (+117) | Play to +105
My Yankees vs Reds prediction is Reds +1.5 (+117). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Reds Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -135 | 9 -118o / -102u | -210 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +115 | 9 -118o / -102u | +170 |
Yankees vs Reds Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Max Fried (LHP) | Stat | RHP Brady Singer (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-2 | W-L | 39-37 |
| 2.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 2.05/3.44 | ERA /xERA | 4.13/4.68 |
| 2.83/3.10 | FIP / xFIP | 4.21/4.58 |
| 0.96 | WHIP | 1.30 |
| 19.3% | K-BB% | 10.0% |
| 53.8% | GB% | 35.0% |
| 111 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 104 | Location+ | 99 |
Kenny Ducey's Yankees vs Reds Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview: Fried Dominant Through June<br />
Max Fried has continued to flash his best stuff here in the month of June. He's completed 26 innings, surrendering just two homers and four walks next to 27 punchouts, and all that's amounted to a 2.42 ERA, which tops his mark in May.
The lefty hasn't exactly been as heavy a ground ball pitcher as he's been in the past, but at 53.8% he's still among the top in the game. We bring that up because the Great American Ballpark is famous for its generosity towards home-run hitters, and keeping the ball on the ground is paramount to your success there. It's also why Fried owns a career 3.86 ERA in two appearances there, and why he should be in a relatively good spot on Wednesday.
Fried's also showcased the ability to limit walks this year, bringing his rate of free passes down three points to 5%, and his strikeouts have taken a modest step up as an added bonus. The veteran has posted a .395 Expected Slugging, which is a slight cause for concern, but as long as he's able to keep the ball on the ground as he's been doing, that number shouldn't be a massive factor in this matchup.
A worry for the Yankees here, on top of their mediocre offensive numbers in the last two weeks, is the fact that their home run-to-fly ball ratio is way down to 10% in the last two weeks, which ranks 23rd in the league. They're hitting just .219, so with a weak .136 Isolated Power, it's been very hard for them to accomplish much of anything. They're also striking out in 25.4% of plate appearances, which is a massive jump from where they've been all year.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview: Singer Limiting Hits
Brady Singer is enjoying the month of June in his own right with a 2.86 ERA through four starts. He's had to come through the Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks, Detroit Tigers, and St. Louis Cardinals, and while he's had some issues keeping runners off base via the walk, he's done an excellent job of limiting hits against him.
Much of that is due to the fact that Singer's had the ability to pitch on the road in his last two starts, where he was able to make it through 12 innings without allowing a home run on just eight hits, and as a fly-ball pitcher he's always going to be set up for a bit more success away from Cincinnati.
Singer's xBA is down to a respectable .267 this month after taking a trip north of .300 in May, and his xSLG has leveled off as well, even if it's still a poor .465. This isn't the greatest pitcher in the world, as we know, and he doesn't exactly have the best defense behind him, which calls into question just how much we can trust a guy who gives up a load of contact. It's proven to work out decently well this month, and with the Yankees failing to walk much in the last two weeks, he could sneak his way into a quality start.
Yankees vs Reds Prediction, Pick
Cincinnati hasn't exactly hit all that much better than New York of late, but with a .175 ISO it would seem to be the clear favorite in a game which is going to come down to who can drive the ball better off two pitchers with troubles in the slugging department.
For the Yankees, I just find it hard to get behind this offense at the moment. They're struggling for contact, they're not taking walks, and they're not hitting the ball in the air with the same kind of gumption we've seen all year.
It's not to say Singer is a better pitcher than Fried, but given the environment both will step into, you have to like the power bats on the Reds' side so much more. It's a bad matchup when you look at the respective splits against ground-ball and fly-ball pitchers, but the recent trends are certainly damning for the Yankees.
Prediction: Reds +1.5 (+117)
