The San Francisco Giants (54-50) host the New York Mets (60-44) on Saturday, July 26, 2025. First pitch from Oracle Park is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Bay Area and SNY.
Find my Mets vs Giants prediction and moneyline pick for Saturday night below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Mets vs Giants Prediction, Moneyline Pick
- Mets vs Giants picks: Giants Moneyline (-112) | Play to -122
My Mets vs Giants best bet is the Giants moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Giants Odds, Lines
| New York Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -102 |
| San Francisco Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
Mets vs Giants Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP David Peterson (NYM) | Stat | LHP Robbie Ray (SF) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-4 | W-L | 9-4 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 2.90/4.09 | ERA /xERA | 2.92/3.27 |
| 3.34/3.58 | FIP / xFIP | 3.76/3.94 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.13 |
| 12.4 | K-BB% | 16.4 |
| 56.7 | GB% | 39.8 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 101 | Location+ | 94 |
Mets vs Giants Preview, Prediction
Mets Betting Preview
David Peterson continues to defy all traditional logic, and at this point, we can't rule out that he was created in some sort of laboratory. Opponents are running just a .231 average against him with two outs in his career, a number that's far better than the other two splits, and this year they're just .189 in these situations.
It's a testament to just how many times Peterson is able to get himself out of jail. The lefty continues to run one of the highest Expected Batting Averages of any starter at .271 — a number that's even worse than where it was last year.
Peterson is currently surviving on his ability to pitch under pressure, but with a sky-high 56.7% ground ball rate and a low 20.3% strikeout rate, he will continue to put himself under pressure. This Mets infield has come in above average by the metrics, and ranks top-five in Outs Above Average this month, but that's not the reason why Peterson's run an ERA under one run this month.
No, the lefty simply hasn't been tasked with much of anything. He's had the fortune of facing the Brewers, Pirates, and Reds in his three starts, and now he'll have to contain a red-hot Giants offense on the road. You'd expect plenty more hits out of this talented and disciplined side, and Peterson is simply going to have to pitch himself out of trouble once again — something he's been doing his whole life.
Giants Betting Preview
Robbie Ray, meanwhile, is simply unbothered out there. He's found a way to maintain a .214 xBA despite a slight drop in strikeouts, but when we look back at his last full season in 2022, we see some better performances in the expected numbers, even if he's striking out slightly fewer batters.
The southpaw has still struggled a bit with walks, and as a fly-ball pitcher, he can often lose control of his outings thanks to one big blow, but he's really enjoyed life at home, where he's sporting a 2.53 ERA to beat out his 3.40 mark on the road.
That's not to say it's been all roses this summer for Ray, however, whose xBA has spiked at .237 this month, next to a brutal .479 xSLG. The good news is that his lone poor outing did come on the road, and it came against the team with the best record in baseball. The tough part is he did walk five last go around against those Blue Jays, and he's now walked 11 this month in 25 innings.
Mets vs Giants Prediction, Betting Analysis
We touched on this yesterday to no avail, but the Giants hold a stunning split in the hit trajectory numbers. They reside comfortably in the top 10 against ground-ball pitchers by OPS, and are in the bottom five against fly-ballers. They've struggled in these two-out situations, which could help the luck machine run wild for Peterson, but even if they don't have a big night at the plate, their horse on the mound should clean things up.
The Mets are looking at around a one-point drop in walk rate against lefties with a jump of over one point in strikeout rate, and with the 16th-ranked wRC+ in this split, they're miles off their performance against righties, where they rank 11 spots higher. On top of that, they're running a .131 Isolated Power versus lefties, which is over 50 points worse than the reverse split.
Ray's big weaknesses — walks and extra-base hits — shouldn't be too much of a concern here with the way the Mets have handled lefties. On the flip side, San Francisco — which is hitting well — should greatly appreciate another friendly matchup at home.
Pick: Giants Moneyline (-112) | Play to -122
Moneyline
Back the Giants on the moneyline tonight.
Run Line (Spread)
I have no play on the run line tonight.
Over/Under
I have no play on the total.
