This series is the second meeting between the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies this season, with Philadelphia claiming two of the three games in the first series.
Let's dive into my my Nationals vs Phillies same game parlay for Friday night, which features three legs that include a moneyline and player props for Jake Irvin and Zack Wheeler.
Nationals vs Phillies Same Game Parlay (+387 via DraftKings)
- Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
- Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
- Phillies ML (-265)
Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Washington hands the ball to right-hander Jake Irvin on Friday evening, and he should be a good fade candidate. He has gotten off to a good start this season, posting a 3.55 ERA and 1.09 WHIP through his first eight starts.
However, regression is looming for Irvin, as he ranks in the 25th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Specifically, we are going to fade the right-hander in the strikeout market, as he ranks in the 32nd percentile or lower in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
You can find Irvin's strikeout prop at 4.5, with the under returning even money, so it is worth noting that he has failed to surpass that total in three of his past four starts. That trend is likely to continue against Philadelphia, a team that ranks 11th in the league in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
On the other side, the Phillies will hand the ball to right-hander Zack Wheeler. There is not a single category that Wheeler doesn't win in this matchup against Irvin, statistically or analytically.
This season, Wheeler paces Irvin in wins, ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He is also the superior pitcher in the strikeout department, ranking in the 74th percentile or higher in chase, whiff and strikeout rates.
Wheeler has recorded eight or more strikeouts in four of his past six starts, a trend likely to continue against New York. Over the past nine meetings against the Mets, Wheeler is 4-3 with a 3.42 ERA. He is averaging 6.7 strikeouts per start over that stretch.
Phillies ML (-265)
If we are fading Irvin while simultaneously backing Wheeler, then a highly correlated outcome would be that the Phillies win this game. Not only does Wheeler clear Irvin across the board, but Philadelphia also possess the superior lineup.
This season, the Phillies outrank the Mets in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs. That is virtually every key hitting statistic, and the gap in each of those rankings is a wide one as well.
Better starting pitcher, better lineup and home-field advantage makes this heavy -265 moneyline on Philadelphia understandable. However, this SGP is a way to back Philly at plus-money.
