Nationals vs Mariners Odds
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+188 | 8.5 -107 / -112 | +1.5 -109 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -235 | 8.5 -107 / -112 | -1.5 -112 |
If the Mariners want to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive year, they're going need to get hot and start stringing together some wins. Well, a series against the Nationals is certainly a good place to start.
The Mariners are sizable favorites and should have a big advantage both on the mound and at the plate.
Give Washington credit, the Nationals have been more competitive than many expected. However, they're still one of the bottom-five teams in the league. Below, I’ll break down Wednesday’s matchup and how I am attacking Nationals vs. Mariners from a betting perspective.
Washington Nationals
Happy Patrick Corbin Day! The 33-year-old pitcher has been the league’s worst pitcher over the past three years. Since the start of the 2021 season, Corbin has a 5.89 ERA and no player has allowed more hits or runs. Only Jordan Lyles has surrendered more home runs.
So far this season, Corbin holds a 5.32 ERA, which is actually a full run improvement from his 2022 mark. However, his 6.42 xERA is the worst of his career and ranks in the bottom 5% of the league. He ranks in the bottom 10% in nearly every major category and his Baseball Savant page is just a bunch of blue dots.
Corbin’s strikeout rate is nonexistent. He throws his fastball nearly half the time and opponents are crushing it to the tune of a .367 batting average. Teams have scored at least two runs off Corbin in all 16 of his starts this year.
If you asked a casual baseball fan, I’m not sure they could name a single player in the Nationals lineup. That being said, this team has been better than expected. Washington ranks 18th in wOBA and has been closer to league average than the basement.
Seattle Mariners
Many expected a breakout season from 26-year-old Logan Gilbert, but he hasn't been able to reach that next level. If anything, his performance has actually taken a slight step back.
Gilbert has been a perfect example of both sides of the regression monster. His numbers say he was a bit lucky last season as he posted a 3.20 ERA and a 4.11 xERA. This season, those marks have swung the other way — Gilbert has a 4.07 ERA with a 3.53 xERA.
Despite the step back in his surface numbers, Gilbert’s strikeout rate has improved, as has his walk rate, xwOBA and hard-hit percentage. All of those numbers are the best of his career. Gilbert has terrific command, does a great job missing bats and has increased his ground-ball rate thanks to the addition of a splitter. He should begin to find better success here soon.
Perhaps no team has been unluckier at the plate than Seattle. The Mariners have a .306 wOBA, despite having an xwOBA of .325. That’s the third-biggest negative differential in the league. Every single player in their lineup has an xwOBA and xBA higher than their actual number.
Nationals vs Mariners Betting Pick
Betting against Corbin in every start over the past four years would have yielded a 60-28 record.
Corbin has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball and ranks in the bottom 10% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, average exit velocity and strikeout rate. Additionally, his advanced stats all point to him pitching even worse than his numbers show now.
I am a firm believer that Gilbert is a much better pitcher than his surface numbers have shown this year. When you look under the hood a bit, he's actually been better than last year, but doesn't have the results to show for it.
I expect him to see positive regression, but he hasn't been dominant enough for me to feel comfortable laying -250 with Seattle. I don’t hate taking the Mariners -1.5 and banking on Gilbert turning in a strong performance, but I think the better play is just to fade Corbin directly.
Seattle has underperformed on offense but has a ton of talent throughout the lineup.
This roster has a .373 career wOBA against Corbin and should be able to get to him early and often. Back Seattle's team total in this one.
Pick: Mariners Over 4.5 Runs |
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