The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate. They've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Royals vs. Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Carlos Hernandez vs. Braxton Garrett
Sean Zerillo: I’m gonna take the Kansas City Royals in both halves. This is technically my largest projected edge on this slate, at least it was from an overnight standpoint.
Carlos Heranadez is a guy that Anthony and I were intrigued by quite a bit a couple of years ago and just got so frustrated with, because he could never throw the ball in the zone. But the arm talent was obvious – high 90s fastball, wicked slider — and it seems like he’s destined to be a dominant reliever, because his stuff has really played up in the bullpen.
He has top 10 fastball velocity, is 18th in Stuff+ among all pitchers and the fastball’s cranked up. from like 97 as a starter to like 99/100 out of the bullpen. So long term, I think he’s going to be a very effective reliever and the bullpen is his home, but he is going to make an opening spot start today. I’d expect him to go about two innings at the front of a bullpen game for the Royals. Hopefully, he can give us two clean innings.
And the Royals offensively, against Braxton Garrett, may be in their better split. They rank much better against lefties than they do against righties. They’re still well below average against both types of pitching, but are in their better split here: 103 wRC+ against lefties, so slightly above average, and 79 against righties, so 21% below average.
I made the Royals here closer to +125 in either half. You could make them down to about +135, and just hope they can keep things tight and competitive over the course of a bullpen game in a matchup where they should have a decent offensive splits advantage over the opposing starter.
Cardinals vs. Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Adam Wainwright vs. Martin Perez
Anthony Dabbundo: I like the Cardinals against the Rangers. You can get a better number than I did now, because the market has moved a little bit toward the Rangers.
The Cardinals have not hit lefties at the level they did last year, but the lineup still projects well against lefties with the two big right-handed bats and now Willson Contreras in the middle of the order. I think it’s more a matter of Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt not being as good as they were last year, but their projection still looks good against lefties for sure.
And I like them against Perez. When you look at the Pitching+ numbers you wouldn’t believe it, but Wainwright projects better than Martin Perez now based on Stuff+. He has the elite curveball that still gets by. The sinker hasn’t been as bad as I thought it would be. I know that his strikeout numbers have been really poor – he’s only struck out 12% of hitters thus far, by far a career low. His xERA is the highest it’s ever been.
But if you look at a Pitching+ projected ERA, these two guys are pretty comparable pitchers overall. So I’m gonna take the flier on the Cardinals in their better split, whereas the Rangers project better against lefties.
I’m gonna take the Cardinals and trust them to win a game, which they have not done very well lately. But you know what? Go Birds.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Monday, June 5
- Royals moneyline
- Cardinals moneyline
At the time of this writing, you can parlay these two underdog moneylines at FanDuel for +406.
Pick: Royals/Cardinals Moneyline Parlay |
What is QuickSlip?
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