The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Pirates vs. Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET
Rich Hill vs. Blake Snell
Sean Zerillo: I'm going to go with the Pittsburgh Pirates at +230. I have them projected closer to +205.
There is nowhere in this matchup where I can say that they have a definitive edge here, plus young infielder Tucupita Marcano was injured yesterday running the bases.
Blake Snell has been a little shaky in his last few starts. He was really shaky in that last start with seven walks. In the start before that, he had four walks, but he also had seven strikeouts. His command has gone away a little bit. He found it completely for two months, and now it seems as if it might be gone again. Snell's last two starts have not been nearly as impressive as his first two months.
The Pirates are +230; you can bet them down to about +220.
Angels vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Griffin Canning vs. Eduardo Rodriguez
Anthony Dabbundo: I'm going to take the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at +115 against the Detroit Tigers.
Eduardo Rodriguez has been a bit of a reclamation project. He had a really tough year personally with off-the-field stuff last year. He's never been a dominant stuff guy, but he's always gotten by with his command. However, I can't really get past the offense edge that's pretty drastic for the Angels here.
Even without Mike Trout, they project as a top-eight lineup against left-handed pitching this season. The Tigers, as we've said repeatedly this season, are much worse against righties, and they get a righty tonight. Having Kerry Carpenter in the lineup certainly helps, but this lineup doesn't have a lot of pop in it otherwise.
The biggest problem for Griffin Canning has been the home runs. His strikeout minus walk rates are impressive, and they're that of someone who could be a league-average starter with about a 4.00 ERA. However, he just gives up one or two too many homers that hurt him. In this park and against this lineup, it's a much more favorable matchup for him.
Rodriguez has had a great year with a 2.90 ERA. His expected metrics are much closer to what he normally is, which is about a 3.80 pitcher. There's a small edge to the Tigers in the starting pitching, but I do like the Angels here.
The Angels also had an off day yesterday while the Tigers had to play. Detroit had to use some of its higher-leverage bullpen arms behind Tarik Skubal. They are hurt a little bit here in terms of rest, even though they were at home. I like the Angels.
Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Tuesday, July 25
- Pirates moneyline
- Angels moneyline
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +563 at the time of this writing.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
