The Payoff Pitch podcast MLB experts break down their favorite picks from the day's slate every Monday, Tuesday and Friday, including each analyst's favorite underdog on the slate, and they've got two more to recommend today.
You can read about their picks below, and be sure to subscribe to Payoff Pitch for MLB picks and predictions all season long.
Phillies vs. Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET
Zack Wheeler vs. Sandy Alcantara
Anthony Dabbundo: The baseball betting market can be a bit of a pendulum sometimes. You could have bought Alcantara at the absolute peak at the beginning of the season after winning the Cy Young last year.
It was really August of last year when the market finally caught up to him. We had this show every five days, and we would come on and say, "Sandy this, Sandy that." Every five days, the line would move 30 cents towards Miami.
That has kind of ended now, and it's actually the opposite. I think you're getting Sandy at a discount. He pitched against the Red Sox a couple weeks ago, and the market took a ton of Boston money against Whitlock, which I really didn't understand.
He pitched against the Braves, and he struggled with homers in that game, but his stuff looked as good as it has ever looked. The underlying metrics for Alcantara don't look that much worse than past years.
This Phillies lineup is very free-swinging, and they will chase bad pitches. I think that actually plays into Alcantara's hands, and he'll generate a lot of ground balls tonight. I know the Phillies tagged him for nine runs in their last outing back in April, and the Phillies have seen plenty of him over the years.
His Stuff+ is down a couple of ticks, but not noticeably. The changeup has been the biggest difference between last year and this year for him, and that has been a problem because he hasn't been nearly as good against lefties.
However, a lot of that is that he got the big double plays when he needed them last year, and this year he hasn't generated them at the same rate.
His xERA is 4.20. If you look at his career, it was 4.07 in 2020 and 3.47 in 2021. He had the one dominant year and went back to being a 4.20-ERA pitcher. I think the true value of Alcantara is right around a 3.75 or a 3.80, and I don't have Wheeler that much better. I think Wheeler is marginally better, but not that much.
There is a bullpen edge for the Marlins with their top arms rested as the Phillies used everybody the last two days against the Rays on the road.
There are some bullpen advantages built in for Miami tonight, and the lineups are not as different as you'd think. Philadelphia's lineup is 15th in WRC+, and this Miami lineup has a projection of just being just slightly below league average, even without Chisholm.
At +114 at home, I like the Marlins. I don't think there is enough of an advantage for Philly to be -130 on the road in this matchup.
Pick: Marlins ML +114 |
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Blue Jays vs. Tigers, 6:40 p.m. ET
Alek Manoah vs. Alex Faedo
BJ Cunningham: I don't think Alek Manoah is fixed. Everybody's going to point to the one horrific start he had in rookie ball. He had a halfway-decent start in AA, but he still walked three batters in five innings, which was his big problem. He had a BB/9 Rate of 6.5, which is just unheard of for a Major League starter who can actually stay in the league. In turn, his xERA went well above six.
I found it interesting that he faced Detroit earlier this season on April 11, before any of these problems were seemingly as glaring as they are now. The Tigers, who are one of the worst lineups in baseball, tagged him for three runs, and he walked five batters in 4.1 innings.
Maybe the Blue Jays are much smarter than the public thinks. They've seen him throw a bunch of bullpens, and they think he's figured out whatever his problem is. Maybe he has, but I'm going to bet against him here.
I like the Tigers at +130. Alex Faedo is going to be on the mound for them in his first start since May 30 coming off the injured list. He is a huge positive regression candidate, although it is a small sample size. He had a 5.50 ERA, a 3.15 xERA and one of the lowest BB/9 rates as well.
His main problem was that he gave up six home runs in his five starts earlier this season. However, in those 26 innings, his Pitching+ rating was 104, which is pretty solid. He also has a good and effective slider.
Given how bad Manoah is, I'm going to try to fade him after his Minor League stint until he proves me wrong. I like the Tigers tonight.
Pick: Tigers ML +114 |
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Payoff Pitch Underdog Picks for Friday, July 7
- Marlins ML +114
- Tigers ML +114
At FanDuel, this parlay would pay out at +357 at the time of this writing.
Pick: Payoff Pitch Underdog ML Parlay +357 |
